Ravens vs Texans Pick, Prediction | NFL Divisional Round Odds
My Ravens vs Texans pick is a lean on the total, which sits at 43.5 across the board. The No. 1-seeded Ravens enter this Divisional Round matchup as 9.5-point favorites against Houston.
C.J. Stroud and the Texans continued their improbable season by easily dispatching of the Browns in the Wild Card Round, a drubbing so bad that Davis Mills got to log some garbage time. They now face a well-rested Ravens team coming off the bye. The big news with the Ravens entering this game was the potential return of tight end Mark Andrews (ankle), but he was ultimately not activated from injured reserve. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey (calf) has also been ruled out.
Let's get into my Divisional Round betting preview and Ravens vs Texans pick.
Ravens vs Texans Pick & Prediction
Ravens vs Texans Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
Ravens vs Texans Prediction
When the Ravens Have the Ball
Boasting the MVP favorite in Lamar Jackson, the Ravens enter the postseason as the team to beat in the AFC.
The Ravens' rushing offense ranks first in DVOA and they ran the ball at the seventh-highest rate in neutral-game situations. The Texans might be able to slow them down as they rank second in defensive rush DVOA.
The Texans defense might be a bit underrated considering Derek Stingley Jr. was sidelined from Weeks 3-9. He's one of the best cornerbacks in the league as his 10.3 snaps per target ranks third among qualified CBs. Being without a player of that caliber for nearly half the season means we should take their defensive pass DVOA ranking (23rd) with a grain of salt.
Houston bolstered its defensive line in Week 13 with the acquisition of former Eagle Derek Barnett, who has played the best football of his career in his seven-game stretch with the Texans. Since becoming more of a full-time player in Week 16, he leads the team in QB pressures and has the second-most run stops. He's become a key piece over the last few weeks and the market may be underrating this addition.
The Texans defense won’t shut down the Ravens, but they may be able to slow them down just enough.
Ravens vs. Texans Pick | FanDuel
When the Texans Have the Ball
Stroud's incredible rookie season carried over into the postseason with a dominant outing in the Wild Card Round against the Browns. The Ohio State product completed 16-of-21 passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns en route to becoming the youngest quarterback to win a playoff game.`
Stroud, however, finds himself in a tougher matchup in the Divisional Round against a Ravens defense that ranks first in DVOA against the pass. He's also been less efficient in road games, ranking sixth in EPA per play at home compared to 21st on the road.
While the Texans have managed to go 4-1 since Tank Dell’s season-ending injury in Week 13, Stroud’s efficiency has taken a big hit without the wideout. Stroud averaged 9.15 yards per attempt (Y/A) with Dell on the field compared to 7.21 Y/A without Dell.
It has been a losing proposition to fade Stroud for much of this season, but this is a spot where I would not be shocked if he struggles and the Texans' magical run ends.
Ravens vs Texans Prediction
As I laid out, there is reason to believe that Stroud, despite how good he has been in his debut season, could struggle on the road against the top-ranked pass defense in the league.
There is also reason to believe the Texans defense is underrated and that their elite rush defense could slow down what the Ravens do best.
Considering we will likely see Baltimore in a positive game script as nearly double-digit favorites, this dynamic could be exacerbated as the Ravens build their lead, which means this could actually offer more value as a potential in-game play, say once the Ravens get up seven-plus points at any point in the game.
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