Monday Night Football Week 11 is here, as the Houston Texans (6-4) make the short journey to face off against the Dallas Cowboys (3-6). Kickoff from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and Youtube TV.
Let's get to my Texans vs. Cowboys props and my NFL picks for Monday Night Football.
Sam Farley's Texans vs. Cowboys Player Props
- Rico Dowdle Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
- Nico Collins Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Cooper Rush Under 180.5 Passing Yards (-110, bet365)
Rico Dowdle Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
It’s been a good couple of weeks for Rico Dowdle. He’s finally taken the Cowboys’ backfield, with Mike McCarthy confirming the 26-year old is now the “lead back." It’s taken longer than it should have but it’s been evident all season that Dowdle, despite not being a stud, has far more pop than Ezekiel Elliott.
The Cowboys’ struggles on offense and the injury to Dak Prescott have helped Dowdle take more of a role, with the team leaning more on the run. Over the past two weeks, he’s averaged 64 rushing yards. In each of those games, he’s had 12 carries, the second-highest total he’s had all year.
The Texans are stronger against the pass than on the ground, so expect Dallas to let Dowdle have plenty of chances to carry the rock.
Nico Collins Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
We’re finally going to see Nico Collins back on the field for the Texans, and it couldn’t come any sooner. The Texans were 4-1 in the five games with Collins healthy and have gone 2-3 in the five games since. He averaged 10.75 targets per game before the injury.
In the five games that Collins started, he ended up going for over 100 yards on three occasions and averaged an incredible 113.4 yards per game. The Cowboys are averaging 210.8 receiving yards allowed per game, ranking in the middle of the pack. With Collins now being healthy and going against an average defense, he should be primed for a big game upon his return.
Cooper Rush Under 180.5 Passing Yards (-110)
With Prescott out for the season, it’s now the Cooper Rush show for the Cowboys — or is it?
Rush has been a perennial backup and hasn’t ever really demonstrated anything that shows he can be a regular starter in the NFL. Given the Cowboys gave up a fourth-round pick for Trey Lance, it’s a shock that he hasn’t played more post-Prescott. Is that because the team is loyal to the veteran Rush or has Lance been terrible in practice? If Rush struggles early in this game, then he could be replaced early, which would obviously cash the under on his props.
Even if the Cowboys don’t have an appetite to bench Rush, we need to remember the team has used Dowdle more in the past fortnight, and that the Texans’ defense is better against the pass than the rush. In fact, they’re averaging just 174.7 passing yards per game, the fourth lowest in the NFL.
The last time we saw Rush hit over 180.5 passing yards was back in 2022, but this is a far different Cowboys team and their offensive line won’t be able to provide the same protection.
