The Houston Texans (6-4) and Dallas Cowboys (3-6) will face off on Monday Night Football to close NFL Week 11. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. EST from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will live on ESPN and can be streamed on ESPN+, YouTube TV and other streaming services.
The Texans are 7-point favorites over the Cowboys on the spread (Texans -7), with the game total set at over/under 41 points. Houston is a -350 favorite to win outright, while Dallas is +275 to pull off the upset.
The Texans forced Jared Goff into throwing 5 interceptions last week but still lost to the Lions. The Cowboys have lost four straight games by an average of 19.5 points.
Let's get into my Cowboys vs Texans predictions and NFL picks for Monday Night Football.
Texans vs. Cowboys Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 41 -111o / -112u | -350 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 41 -111o / -112u | +275 |
- Texans vs. Cowboys spread: Texans -7
- Texans vs. Cowboys over/under: 41 points scored
- Texans vs. Cowboys moneyline: Texans -350, Cowboys +275
- Texans vs. Cowboys prediction: Texans 1H -4 (-110)
MyTexans vs. Cowboys best bet is on Houston in the first half. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I want to find a way to fade the Cowboys, who have been awful this season and are especially hopeless with Dak Prescott out for the season.
The Texans are still working things out offensively, so I don't want to lay a touchdown with them over the course of the whole game. Houston has been better offensively in the first half, so I'd recommend betting it there.
Moneyline
I have no interest in betting on Dallas, and I'm also not going to bet the juiced Texans moneyline.
Over/Under
My projection for this game's total is 41.5, so I'm right in line with the market and have no pick.
My Pick: Texans 1H -4 (-110)
Texans vs. Cowboys NFL Monday Night Football Preview
I'm not a fan of laying points with this Texans team. C.J. Stroud, who is 7-3 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog, is just 5-10 ATS as a favorite and 3-8 when laying a field goal or more.
A lot of that has to do with Houston's conservative nature, especially with a lead. This offense is just not firing on all cylinders at the moment, ranking 30th in Success Rate, primarily due to a leaky offensive line (especially in the interior) and injuries at wide receiver.
However, Nico Collins is expected to return tonight. His presence can't be overstated, as Stroud's numbers are night and day with him in the lineup. The Texans will also benefit from playing indoors at AT&T Stadium, where they are at their best.
It's hard to envision Dallas having a ton of defensive success. Unless Micah Parsons can make a few game-changing plays, which he's certainly capable of, this Dallas defense doesn't really have any overwhelming strength. Joe Mixon should be able to get going on the ground against a Cowboys defense that ranks dead last in Rush EPA and 30th in Rush Success Rate. That should set up some shots downfield for Stroud, who now has his downfield threat back in the lineup.
The other side of the ball looks even uglier for Dallas with Cooper Rush under center for the injured Dak Prescott. The Cowboys had a pitiful 26% Success Rate last week against the Eagles with less than 50 yards passing on 29 attempts. That's impossibly bad.
Things likely won't get better this week against one of the league's most underrated defenses (second in Success Rate), especially since Dallas can't really lean on its run game consistently. As a result, it should find itself in plenty of known passing situations against a top-tier pass stop unit that leads the NFL in pressure rate. That's a recipe for disaster with Rush under center.
I don't have much interest in laying a touchdown with Houston on the road here. The Texans are still figuring things out offensively, especially with their propensity to get too conservative and Nico Collins is coming back.
However, I do like the Texans as a moneyline parlay piece (trust the better defense and massive quarterback edge) and fancy Houston for the 1H. For what it's worth, the Texans rank in the bottom five in the NFL in both EPA and Success Rate in the second half compared to 12th and 23rd in the first half.
My Pick: Texans 1H -4 (-110)
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