The final week of the season is here. As always, the questions of who is playing and which teams benefit from a win or get a better draft position with a loss.
So, how does that affect how we look at the Colts vs. Texans odds?
Houston holds the top pick in the 2023 NFL draft, but a win over the Colts combined with a Bears loss to the Vikings would move the No. 1 pick to Chicago. The Colts hold the fifth pick in the draft, but they could end up anywhere from third to sixth.
Both teams need a new quarterback, and that extra draft capital could be massive. Let’s take a deeper look and see which team will help and which will be hurting their draft stock.
Colts vs. Texans Odds
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -118 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | -152 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -104 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | +128 |
Colts vs. Texans Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Colts and Texans match up statistically:
Colts vs. Texans DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 31 | 14 | |
| Pass DVOA | 31 | 15 | |
| Rush DVOA | 32 | 15 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 32 | 20 | |
| Pass DVOA | 32 | 26 | |
| Rush DVOA | 31 | 16 | |
Until last week, the Texans had put together a run of tough games against teams in the playoff hunt. They forced the Cowboys to go on a game-winning 90-yard drive. They took the Chiefs to overtime before losing on a walk-off touchdown. Then, they put a full game together to take down the Titans.
After that impressive stretch, though, the wheels came flying off in Week 17 against the Jaguars in a blowout loss.
What made the Texans a tough out was their defense's ability to force turnovers. Over the last five games, Houston has forced two turnovers. Forcing turnovers has helped the Texans establish a bit of a bend-don’t-break defense. They are 23rd in yards per drive allowed but just 14th in points allowed per drive.
Offensively, nothing has worked for Houston since Dameon Pierce got hurt. Without the rookie, the Texans have not eclipsed 300 yards of offense. On the ground, no running back has come near Pierce’s 4.3 yards per carry (Rex Burkhead is at 3.1). As for the passing attack, let’s just say it's abundantly clear: Houston is likely getting a quarterback with the first or second overall pick in the draft.
Bet Houston vs. Indianapolis at FanDuel
Turning to the Colts, the only spark of hope they've shown recently was against the Vikings when they took a 33-0 lead. Of course, that ended with them allowing the biggest comeback in NFL history.
Indianapolis has been reeling ever since. Since halftime of the Vikings game, the Colts have been outscored 97-16.
The Colts have been a complete mess on offense all season. They rank 30th in yards per drive and 32nd in points per drive. Matt Ryan was brought in this offseason to be the final piece for this offense. He has averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and thrown 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions, but his replacements have thrown for 5.4 yards per attempt and just one touchdown to five interceptions.
Once again, the Colts will be going with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback this week.
The Colts have been a strange break but do not bend defense this year. They rank sixth in yards per drive but 19th in points per drive. The problem has a double-edged sword of turnovers. Their offense has been committed the most, frequently putting them in a bad position. Their defense has struggled to create turnovers as they 23rd.
The pieces for this defense are there however, in a heavy offense league they need more than the zero help they have been getting.
Betting Picks
This game feels like one that is going to simply come down to motivation. That's typically a view I wouldn't say I like to take, but this is an exception.
This mostly comes down to the fact that the Colts have felt like a revolving door of a blame game. Replacing their quarterback, their offensive coordinator, and their coach has left their offense in shambles.
Interim coach Jeff Saturday seems likely not to return, and who knows what changes will come in the front office? The lack of organizational structure will give players less incentive to play hard. Thinking even if they do play well they may not have a job next year anyway.
On the other hand, the Texans have looked like a team lacking talent but still doing everything they can. Their lack of talent has been much more evident, but they have still forced good teams to competitive games recently.
Lovie Smith may not be the coach to lead the Texans forward, but this does feel like a team that is moving up from the bottom. They have a long way to go but with a clear direction, the players will still come out strong with the knowledge that their performance could be the difference between having a job next year.
The Texans may have less talent, but they are facing a dysfunctional offense with a backup quarterback. With more stability in their organization, they will have extra incentive to show what they can do and that they belong in the NFL.
While the Colts, well, they look like they clocked out at halftime of the Vikings game.
Pick: Texans +2.5 | Bet to +1.5 |
