The Houston Texans (11-7) and Kansas City Chiefs (16-1) play in the NFL Divisional Round today at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN.
Let's get into my Chiefs vs Texans prediction. The consensus line is Chiefs -8.5, but DraftKings has the line at 9.5. The game total is 41.5 points scored across the board, and Kansas City is -500 on the moneyline at most books.
The Texans advanced to this matchup by beating the Chargers last week. Houston's defense forced 4 turnovers, all Justin Herbert interceptions, ahead of a matchup with Patrick Mahomes. Chiefs starters haven't played since Christmas and will return to action in freezing conditions.
Texans vs. Chiefs Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 41.5 -108o / -112u | +375 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 41.5 -108o / -112u | -500 |
- Texans vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -9.5
- Texans vs. Chiefs over/under: 41.5 points scored
- Texans vs. Chiefs moneyline: Chiefs -500, Texans +375
Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction
Spread
Nine points is too many for the Chiefs to be laying given a bevy of trends.
A lot of betting trends indicate this is not the time or place to bet against Kansas City, specifically as a No. 1 seed in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Chiefs could also come out rusty having sat most of their key players for the last three weeks.
Be sure to use our live NFL odds page to see where you can get Chiefs -9.5 or the best number available. I would play the Texans down to +8.
Moneyline
I can definitely see the Texans keeping this game close, but winning a playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium against Patrick Mahomes seems too unlikely. I'll pass on betting Houston's moneyline.
Over/Under
This total has gone down since it was posted last week, mostly because of the freezing temperatures we're going to get in Kansas City.
I don't think that will stop both teams from scoring, but the uncertainty given C.J. Stroud's lack of experience in this weather has me passing on the total.
My Pick: Texans +9.5 (DraftKings)
Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Preview
- 55% of bets and 57% of money on the spread are on the Chiefs.
- 78% of bets and 75% of money are on the OVER.
The Texans have covered the spread in their last 2 games, and the over has hit in both of those matchups.
The Chiefs finished the regular season by covering the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, with the under hitting in 3 of those games.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
You might not be excited about it, but the Texans are the right side here.
When these teams met in Kansas City back on Dec. 21, the spread closed at Texans +3.5. A five-point swing since then seems a bit drastic. We haven’t seen Chiefs starters play since Dec. 25, and the Texans did get dominated by the Ravens on Christmas but bounced back with a great win last week.
Houston’s defense is one of the best in the NFL and was on full display in the Wild Card Round. The Texans forced Justin Herbert into four interceptions and convincingly dispatched of the Chargers.
In the Wild Card Round, big home favorites are the bet. That changes in the Divisional Round, though.
According to Brandon Anderson, home favorites in the divisional round are 34-46-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last two decades. Divisional Round favorites with a win percentage of higher than 75% (the Chiefs) are also 18-32 ATS.
No. 1 seeds tend to struggle this weekend, and that might especially be the case here with Chiefs starters coming off two weeks of rest. No. 1 seeds playing at home and coming off a bye week are 15-27-1 ATS in the Divisional Round.
You’ll also know the trends about Patrick Mahomes’ struggles as a big favorite. He’s 22-32-3 (41%) ATS when laying seven or more points in his career, and that number is 0-5-1 this season, although the Chiefs won all six of those games outright.
Specifically since 2020, Mahomes is 15-27 (36%) ATS as a favorite of seven or more points. That’s the worst mark of any quarterback in the NFL.
If you’re wary of fading the Chiefs over the entire game, maybe just do it in the first half. The Texans are 14-4 against the first-half spread this season but 5-13 in the second half. That would also make sense with Kansas City's starters coming off a two-week break entering this game.
Experts Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon both set this total as Chiefs -7. Getting a point and a half over a key number — like seven — is huge, so I'll take it.
This might be a case of the Chiefs turning it on after struggling offensively throughout the regular season (for their standards), but the trends and Houston's impressive performance last week indicate 8.5 points is simply too many.
My Pick: Texans +9.5 (DraftKings)
Chiefs vs. Texans Weather
