The Houston Texans (4-1) and New England Patriots (1-4) will kick off the NFL Week 6 Sunday afternoon slate. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., on CBS. The game can be streamed on Paramount+, YouTube TV and other streaming services.
The Texans are consensus 6.5-point favorites over the Patriots on the spread (Texans -6.5), with the over/under currently set at 38 points. Houston is -300 to win outright on the moneyline, while New England is +240 to pull off the upset.
The Texans won 23-20 last week over the Bills. C.J. Stroud is third in the NFL with 1,385 passing yards, and he's thrown seven touchdowns and three interceptions this season. The Patriots lost 15-10 to the Dolphins for their fourth straight loss. Jacoby Brissett underwhelmed with just two touchdowns and a 58.5% completion percentage in five games, so it's time for rookie Drake Maye to make his first NFL start.
Let's get into my Texans vs. Patriots prediction and my NFL picks and predictions for Week 6.
Texans vs. Patriots Expert Picks
Spread
My pick for this game is taking the points with the home underdogs. The Patriots will be starting Drake Maye, who's well-equipped to handle a shaky offensive line and is going to have a strong group of receivers at his disposal. I think the uncertainty surrounding him in his first start will also play to New England's advantage.
Moneyline
While I like New England on the spread, I'm not betting its moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm in line with the total for this game.
My pick: Patriots +7
Texans vs. Patriots Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 37.5 -110 / -110 | -300 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 37.5 -110 / -110 | +240 |
- Texans vs. Patriots spread: Texans -6.5
- Texans vs. Patriots over/under: 38 points
- Texans vs. Patriots moneyline: Texans -300, Patriots +240
- Texans vs. Patriots best bet: Patriots +7
- 81% of bets and 80% of the money are on the Texans to cover the spread.
- 86% of bets and 76% of the money are on the over.
- 87% of bets and 91% of the money on the moneyline are on the Texans.
My Patriots vs. Texans best bet is on New England to cover the spread, but at Patriots +7, so be sure to shop around, especially since this number is moving against us. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Texans vs. Patriots NFL Week 6
The Texans knocked off the Bills by three points with Josh Allen completing about one-third of his passes. It wasn’t exactly a convincing performance from Houston against a banged-up Buffalo team.
Importantly from that game, Nico Collins suffered a hamstring injury that has him put on the injured reserve. It’s a brutal loss for a Texans team that is already 31st in early down success rate, ahead of only the Browns.
Collins is leading the NFL in receiving yards and is averaging 17.7 yards per catch and 12.6 yards per target with a 6.7% touchdown rate. When C.J. Stroud isn’t throwing to Collins, he’s averaging 6.2 yards per attempt with a 2.9% touchdown rate. In Stroud’s career, Collins has accounted for one-third of his passing yards.
This is a massive loss for the Texans offense that is amplified by hitting the road. Stroud is 9-2 straight-up at home with a 106 passer rating, but he’s 4-5 with a 92 rating on the road. Playing outdoors and away from NRG Stadium, Stroud has been a lot more human.
On the other side, I like the uncertainty with Drake Maye at quarterback because it comes with upside — especially with a spread this high. Obviously, the Patriots offensive line is in dire straits and that’s not great, especially from a pass-blocking perspective.
Wide receiver Kendrick Bourne’s role is going to increase, though, and Ja'Lynn Polk is playing more every week. This might actually be the Patriots’ optimal situation in terms of receivers this week.
Bourne operated as the No. 4 receiver last week, but he’ll take a step up with DeMario Douglas primarily operating in the slot. Then, at tight end, you have Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper.
The Texans haven’t won by more than six points this season, and we’re getting seven. Houston even played Caleb Williams in his second career start, which was a disaster.
If you look at our Luck Rankings, Houston is the luckiest team in the NFL and New England is 26th, a 25-place difference and 56% gap. Both of those trigger a trend that is 64% against the spread over the last five seasons with a sample size of almost 200 games.
Pick: Patriots +7
How to Watch NFL Week 6: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Gillette Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Oct. 13 |
| Kickoff Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS / Paramount+ and YouTube TV |
Patriots vs. Texans is scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET start time, live from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA, on Sunday, Oct. 13. The game is broadcasted live by CBS and is streaming on Paramount+ and YouTube TV.
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