The Houston Texans (6-2) and New York Jets (2-6) will kick off NFL Week 9 on Thursday Night Football tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The game will be broadcast live on Prime Video.
New York is a 2-point favorite over Houston (Jets -2) and is -130 on the moneyline. The game total is 42.5.
The Texans won their fifth one-score game of the season last week with a 23-20 victory over the Colts. Houston is comfortably in first place in the AFC South entering this game thanks to its defense and despite C.J. Stroud looking less prolific than his rookie season so far.
The Jets lost their fifth straight game last week, losing as 7-point underdogs on the road against the Patriots. New York gave up 18 second-half points and blew a halftime lead. Now, Aaron Rodgers and company cannot afford too many more defeats.
Let's get to our Texans-Jets picks and NFL predictions for our Thursday Night Football best bets.
Texans vs. Jets Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texans vs. Jets Odds
- Texans-Jets Spread: Jets -2 (-110)
- Texans-Jets Total: Over/Under 42.5 points scored (-112 / -108)
- Texans-Jets Moneyline: Jets -130, Texans +110
Texans vs. Jets Pick Against the Spread
This line may have jumped off the page to some, as the 6-2 Texans are underdogs against a struggling 2-6 Jets squad. In the entire history of Action Labs, dating back 20 years, we have only seen a team with a 25% win percentage or worse listed as a favorite over a team with a win percentage of 75% or higher on just 78 occasions. The favorite has covered the spread at a 56.9% clip.
In the months of October, November or December, this has only occurred eight times over that two-decade span, with the favorite going 5-2-1 (71.4%) against the spread.
The matchup is ripe for the taking on Thursday night for New York to steal a win. The Texans have struggled on early downs this season, and no team is better on first down defensively than the Jets, who allow just 4.2 yards per play.
Furthermore, the Texans lost Stefon Diggs for the season and Nico Collins is still missing from the lineup. That forces Tank Dell to primarily line up on the outside of the formation, which is the adjustment the Texans made after Diggs' injury. The Jets allow a league-best completion percentage of 49% to outside receivers this season. If Houston is going to have success through the air, role players who have not been counted on will have to generate offense, something I am willing to bet against happening.
When the Jets defense saw C.J. Stroud in 2023, they limited him to just 4.0 yards per attempt on 23 passing plays. Houston will not have time to revamp this offense on a short week without its top two receivers.
An extremely desperate Jets team will stay relevant for one more week by winning this island game.
Pick: Jets -2 (-110)
Texans-Jets Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
It's nice that this total has moved from 42 on Wednesday night to 42.5 across the board on Thursday afternoon. That’s a relatively important number for totals since 42 represents six touchdowns and extra points.
The under is by far my favorite bet in this game. I have zero faith in the 2018 Packers offense that's now wearing Jets jerseys, as it put up only 22 points on a 30th-ranked Patriots defense.
The addition of Davante Adams helps a bit, but it's a short week and this offense still needs time to come together. The Jets are facing a tough Texans unit that ranks second in overall DVOA and third in adjusted sack rate. The combined adjusted sack rates of both teams are actually solidly above league average this week, so it could be a tough time for both passing attacks.
On the Houston side, they are down to just one of their original trio of wide receivers, with Stefon Diggs joining Nico Collins on injured reserve. New York should be able to shift coverage to limit Tank Dell, and the Texans passing attack is fairly thin behind that.
Joe Mixon and the Texans ground game is the one spot that projects well offensively, but rushing obviously takes more time off the clock and shortens the game. Both teams play at a below-average pace anyway, and Houston's league-leading time of possession should limit the number of drives here as well.
That’s a lot of reasons to expect a low-scoring contest, on top of the typical “primetime unders” trends that hold especially strong on Thursdays.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-108)
Texans vs. Jets Player Prop: Tyler Conklin
Game log watchers will think Tyler Conklin has been on a tear recently, but that's only because he has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games.
Outside of those scores, Conklin's role in the Jets offense has gotten smaller in recent weeks. He has only seen eight targets in the two games since the Jets acquired Davante Adams, and he has been held under 24.5 receiving yards in five of eight games this season.
Also, the matchup does not bode well for Conklin. The Texans have allowed the fewest receptions in the NFL (21) and receiving yards (168) to tight ends this season.
Pick: Tyler Conklin Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
