The Houston Texans (6-2) and New York Jets (2-6) will kick off NFL Week 9 tonight on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The game will be broadcast and streamed exclusively on Prime Video.
The Jets are 2.5-point favorites over the Texans (Jets -2.5) with the over/under set at 43 points scored. New York is -140 on the moneyline to win outright, while Houston is +120 to pull off the upset.
The Texans have won five games by six or fewer points this season, including last week's 23-20 win over the Colts. C.J. Stroud had 285 passing yards last week, and Joe Mixon had his fourth 100-yard rushing game in just five appearances this season. The Jets lost their fifth straight last week to the Patriots after allowed 18 second-half points. Aaron Rodgers looked slighly better with 233 passing yards and 2 touchdown passes.
Let's get into my Texans vs. Jets prediction and my NFL picks for Thursday Night Football.
Texans vs. Jets Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 43 -110 / -110 | +120 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 43 -110 / -110 | -140 |
- Texans vs. Jets Spread: Jets -2
- Texans vs. Jets Over/Under: 43 points
- Texans vs. Jets Moneyline: Jets -140, Texans +120
- Texans vs. Jets Best Bet: Under 43
My Jets vs. Texans pick is on the under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I project this spread as Jets -1.5. I don't see an edge in which side to bet and the line is close and doesn't cross key numbers, so I'm passing on betting either side against the spread.
Moneyline
Likewise, I'm passing on betting either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
The Texans' offensive line struggled significantly last week, allowing C.J. Stroud to face 23 pressures, the second-most of the week. This week, Stroud’s matchup gets even tougher against a Jets defense that ranks sixth in pressure rate. With Stroud now missing his top two WRs in Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, The Texans will likely opt for a more conservative, run-heavy game plan to avoid testing the Jets’ elite secondary.
On the other side, the Jets offense also faces an uphill battle. New York will face a red-hot Texans defense that applies pressure across the entire defense line at a league-high rate. Aaron Rodgers will be without RG Alijah Vera-Tucker, making him even more vulnerable to pressure. The Texans secondary has been strong with Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter capable of limiting big plays, which could make it tough for Rodgers to lean on his top two targets in Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams.
Although 79% of the bets and 90% of the money is on the over, the total has largely held at 42, with some books ticking up to 42.5. Since 42 isn’t a key number, there’s no rush to lock in the under now. It could be worth waiting to see if the line climbs to 43, a more significant number for totals.
As long as the total stays above 41.5, the under remains an appealing play given the likely cautious approaches from both teams that lead to a lower-scoring environment.
My pick: Under 43
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Thursday Night Football Preview
Stroud has quickly become one of the NFL's better quarterbacks in his second season, but several factors will make it tough for him to lead a high-scoring offense tonight. He’s still without Collins (out at least another week), and now Diggs is out for the season with a torn ACL.
The Texans have already leaned more on the run game with Collins out and Joe Mixon back healthy, posting a -3% PROE (pass rate over expected) over the last three weeks. They’re likely to rely even more on the ground game against a strong Jets secondary sans Diggs.
Stroud has also shown notable home/road splits in his second year, ranking 11th in EPA per dropback at home but 23rd on the road. With this game outdoors, it’s fair to expect his efficiency to take another dip.
The Texans offensive line was a big issue last week, allowing 23 pressures (second most in Week 8) against a Colts defense ranked just 20th in pressure rate. This week, Houston faces a Jets defense that's sixth in pressure rate and just added premier edge rusher Hasson Reddick. Additionally, LG Kenyon Green struggled mightily, allowing six pressures. This will be an even bigger concern with Jets DT Quinnen Williams, who has generated 15 pressures over the past four games (second among DTs), likely to line up against Green.
Expect Stroud to face heavy pressure, particularly up the middle, throughout the night.
The Jets have yet to win a game since firing Robert Saleh and trading for Adams and have lost five straight. This matchup poses a tough test for a struggling Jets offense with Houston's defense playing at an elite level.
The Texans pass rush is formidable across the line. Will Anderson ranks in the top 10 in pressure rate since entering the start of last season, and Danielle Hunter leads the league with a 21% pressure rate, the highest since 2018. The interior is no easier, with DTs Tim Settle and Folorunso Fatukasi boasting the highest combined pressure rate of any DT duo this season (per NextGenStats).
Houston generates the league’s highest pressure rate, and it comes from all four linemen. That will make it difficult for Rodgers to anticipate where the rush will come from.
The Jets offensive line issues add to the challenge with Vera-Tucker likely to miss his second consecutive game.
In the secondary, Stingley and Lassiter have excelled in man coverage, each holding opposing pass catchers to below a 41% completion rate, the top two figures in the league according to NextGenStats. That spells trouble for Wilson and Adams.
Additionally, Jalen Pitre, a former safety now playing in the slot, has been excellent, especially in run defense. With Breece Hall running outside the tackles at the 11th-highest rate among qualified backs, Pitre’s presence could be crucial in limiting Hall’s production on the perimeter.
Pick: Under 42.5
- 84% of bets and 84% of the money are on the Texans to cover the spread.
- 75% of bets and 69% of the money are on the over.
- 45% of bets and 93% of the money on the moneyline are on the Texans.
How to Watch NFL Thursday Night Football: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | MetLife Stadium |
| Date: | Thursday, Oct. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Prime Video |
Jets vs. Texans is scheduled for an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff, live from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., on Thursday night. The game will be broadcast and streamed live by Prime Video.
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