The biggest underdogs in the NFL this season have been on a wild ride through five weeks. As Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams noted in his weekly column, NFL underdogs of 6 points or more are 11-8 straight up through five weeks, the first time since 1960 that 6-point 'dogs points are over .500 through five weeks.
Those scrappy underdogs have wreaked havoc on survivor pools nationwide since the first Sunday slate. Whether it's Circa or any of the various other NFL survivor pools out there, more than 98% of pool entrants have been eliminated through the first five weeks of the season.
Where does that rank historically? Here's what the data show about this season rife with upsets.
Historic Chaos in NFL Survivor Pools
NFL Survival Pool Weekly Rate — 2024 Season
| Weekly Survival Rate | Cumulative Survival Rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 59.9% | 59.9% |
| Week 2 | 42.8% | 25.6% |
| Week 3 | 22.1% | 5.7% |
| Week 4 | 70.0% | 4.0% |
| Week 5 | 44.0% | 1.7% |
The cumulative survival rate (the previous week's cumulative rate multiplied by the weekly survival rate for the current week) for 2024 is the lowest it has ever through five weeks going back to 2014, according to data from Pool Genius.
The lowest cumulative survival rate through five weeks before this season was 4.3% in 2015. On average, the cumulative survival rate doesn't drop below 2% until the end of Week 13 and in 2020 it was 2.2% by the end of the regular season.
The Path to a 1.7% Cumulative Survival Rate
In the survivor pools tracked by Pool Genius, the most popular team has lost in all but one week this season — Week 3 was particularly brutal with the four most popular teams losing — but there have been some fascinating outcomes to get us to this point.
One team has been on the wrong end of a massive upset twice this season. In Week 1, the Bengals were the most popular team by a wide margin (34%) and lost to the Patriots at home. In Week 3, they were the fourth-most picked team (13%) and lost to the Commanders on Monday Night Football in Jayden Daniels' coming out party.
In Week 2, the Ravens were the most popular team (31%) and faced the Raiders as 9-point favorites. The Raiders scored 13 unanswered points in the final 10 minutes to knock off the Ravens. In Week 3, the Raiders were the second-most popular team (19%) and faced the Panthers who just benched Bryce Young ahead of the matchup. Of course, Andy Dalton and the Panthers came alive and won by two touchdowns.
The Broncos took out a significant number of pools in consecutive weeks. They went on the road and nearly shut out the Buccaneers, the most popular team in Week 3 (picked in 26% of pools), then beat the Jets (picked in 26% of pools) on the road in the lone major upset of Week 4.
The Seahawks might take the cake among all the upsets we've seen so far this season. They were picked in 36% of pools in Week 5, the most of any team in any week this season, and lost in spectacular fashion on a blocked potential game-tying kick that was returned for a touchdown with one minute left.
