The Green Bay Packers need a tune-up, and the Detroit Lions may be the perfect opponent.
The Packers posted an NFL-low three points in Week 1 against the Saints, but they draw a Lions defense that allowed 41 in its opener.
If there was ever a time for quarterback Aaron Rodgers to get back on track, it's in primetime, at home, as a double-digit favorite.
Lions vs. Packers Start Time
- Date: Monday, Sept. 20
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
The divisional tilt kicks off the same time as all other Monday Night Football games this season (8:15 p.m. ET), which are five minutes sooner than both Thursday Night and Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET).
Week 2 is the lone Monday Night Football slot for the Packers this season. However, the team gets two more Thursday Night Football games (10/28 vs. Cardinals, 12/25 vs. Browns) and another pair on Sunday Night (9/26 vs. 49ers, 1/2 vs. Vikings).
Detroit, meanwhile, makes just one prime-time appearance.
How to Watch Monday Night Football
- TV: ESPN
- Stream: ESPN+ (cable subscription required)
Having a standalone ESPN+ subscription does not give you access to live events that are broadcast on ESPN's family of networks. You need a cable subscription to get Monday Night Football live on the ESPN+ app.
Updated Lions-Packers Odds
- Packers -11
- Lions +11
- Total:48.5
Rodgers posted the lowest quarterback rating of his career (36.8) in Week 1. Still, he's one of the best gunslingers in the league, and the Packers have been exceptional after a loss, covering eight of the last nine. There's no surprise this divisional tilt features a double-digit spread that's only climbing.
Green Bay went under the total its 38-3 opener with the Saints. However, Rodgers and Co. have been a great 'over' bet in September, hitting 35 of the last 52. The franchise has also gone over the total in five of the last six against the NFC North.
The Lions, meanwhile, are just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games as road underdogs. They are also 5-1 to the over in their last six against divisional opponents.
Packers-Lions Pick
To answer the question about whether to overreact to the Packers’ Week 1 blowout loss, we have to ask ourselves exactly how far out of the norm it was given the circumstances. For most, “the circumstances” were the Packers coming off a somewhat tumultuous offseason where Aaron Rodgers wasn’t a sure thing to come back to the team.
But what if we look at the cirumstances another way?
What if it was simply that Rodgers was facing an elite defense?
Here are the Saints’ overall defensive DVOA rankings:
- Overall: 2nd
- Pass Defense: 3rd
- Run Defense: 2nd
After the Saints beat down the Packers in Week 1, they rank first in defensive DVOA, which is … one spot off from when they finished last season.
Speaking of last season: Remember the one truly bad game Rodgers had? The one in which he went 16-of-35 for 160 yards with zero touchdowns, two interceptions, and four sacks for 42 yards lost in a 38-10 loss?
That came in Week 5 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, another defense that ranked in the top five in DVOA.
Was last week’s 38-3 loss disappointing? Sure. Does it warrant an overreaction? Absolutely not. Things like that will happen against good defenses, even in MVP seasons like Rodgers had last year.
The good thing for the Packers offense? Here is how the Lions ranked on defense last season:
- Overall Defensive DVOA: 32nd
- Pass Defense DVOA: 32nd
- Run Defense DVOA: 27th
After one game — a 41-33 loss to the 49ers at home — the Lions are ranked … 30th in defensive DVOA (and 30th against both the pass and run).
So, to recap: Rodgers goes from facing a defense that ranked in the top three overall and against the pass to facing one that ranks bottom three overall and against the pass.
I’m not a fan of backing the favorite with huge spreads, but I make this game Packers -12.5, so I lean Packers here.
This is a much better matchup for the Packers, and a lot of trends are also working in their favor.
