The Packers were installed as a 4.5-point favorite for Week 2’s matchup with the Colts prior to Green Bay’s season-opener against the Eagles.
Then Jordan Love’s injury happened.
The Packers’ star quarterback avoided a season-ending injury, but did suffer an MCL sprain in the final seconds of Green Bay’s loss. Reports are that he’s expected to miss between 3-6 weeks, and head coach Matt LaFleur announced Malik Willis would get the nod if Love can’t go.
The expected quarterback switch shifted the odds dramatically, as the Packers are now three-point underdogs.
So, how have backup quarterbacks fared in similar spots Willis now faces?
Well, it turns out better against the spread than straight up.
Backup quarterbacks in their first start as an underdog are 20-49 (29%) straight up but 37-30-2 (55%) against the spread since 2021. Last year, they went 9-16 SU and 12-12-1 ATS. We’ve already had one backup start a game this year, as Justin Fields replaced Russell Wilson after the latter suffered a calf injury in practice. Fields led the Steelers to an outright win as a four-point 'dog in an 18-10 win over the Falcons.
Meanwhile, Green Bay’s backups have fared poorly straight up and against the spread over the years. They’re only 1-4 SU over the past decade, with the lone win coming from Brett Hundley in 2017. The last time they had to turn to a backup QB was in 2021, when Love was forced into action after Aaron Rodgers went down. Green Bay lost 13-7 in that game but managed to cover the seven-point spread.
The Packers are known for having a blessed quarterback situation over the last two decades, going from Brett Favre to Rodgers to Love — each of them are over .500 ATS. However, it’s another story for the other four quarterbacks who made starts over the past 20 years, as Hundley, Matt Flynn, Seneca Wallace, and Scott Tolzien all went .500 or worse.
For what it's worth, the Colts shifting from an underdog to a favorite potentially bodes well for the Packers. As pointed out by Action Network’s Director of Research Evan Abrams in his weekly primer, teams that opened as an underdog but closed as the favorite are 76-106 ATS (42%) dating back to 2018. They went 1-1 last week, as the Vikings won while the Browns lost.
