Some betting strategies aren’t born through sophisticated statistical models, analytics or intuition. Frankly, sometimes they’re discovered by accident (S/O to penicillin) or just plain boredom. Well, the latter led to one of the strangest and most profitable betting nights of my career, when I walked away with over 30 units of profit from one NFL game.
You may see the profits and think, “That’s believable, you probably hit a same-game parlay” or “You loaded up on just one bet with a perceived edge.” Neither are true. How I did it was betting on in-game drive props and repeatedly taking the “turnover” option.
Before I explain how I stumbled into this, let’s get you up to speed on in-game drive props and what they are.
What Are In-Game Drive Props?
When an NFL game is underway, sportsbooks like Bet365 offer bettors the opportunity to wager on how a specific team’s drive will play out. Your betting options are pretty straightforward: Punt, touchdown, field goal, turnover or other (essentially means a safety). The odds also vary depending on the game situation.
The teams involved also impact these odds. A team with an explosive offense like the Rams may see lower odds for a touchdown compared to a struggling one, like the Jaguars. And a team like the Ravens will typically have lower odds for the field goal option with All-Pro kicker Justin Tucker waiting to knock one through the uprights. All these variables are factored into the sportsbook’s algorithm for generating odds.
Punt is usually the option with the lowest odds for each respective drive. For reference, the Texans led the NFL in punts per game last season at 5.2 while the Chiefs had the fewest at 2.5. For an NFL primetime game, the odds typically hover around -150 to +120 for an offense to punt depending on field position. Sharp bettors could easily exploit the punt market, but the patience required to master it hasn’t been worth the effort in my experience.
The one option of those five that doesn’t see much of an odds shift is "turnover." Whether a team is getting the ball off a kickoff/punt or is deep into opposing territory, the turnover is alive until the drive is over. Especially now that failing to convert on a fourth down counts as a turnover for this market. That’s why sportsbooks can’t deviate too much from their normal odds structure because of the propensity of teams going for it on fourth down. In a given primetime game, turnover odds for any drive typically range from +350 to +500.
Strategy for Betting Live Turnover Props
This is the part where it gets tricky. Overall, betting consistently on in-game turnovers in the NFL is a losing proposition at the given odds of +350 to +500. Even the worst NFL teams only average 1.7 turnovers per game on around 11 drives per game. Picking which exact drive will result in a turnover is extremely hard.
That being said, there is a method to the madness. Here are four factors to consider should you wish to get in on the action:
1. Only Bet One Side
Identify a team you think may be turnover prone. For example, if it’s a primetime game featuring the Bills and Jets, you may want to consider taking New York turnovers in this spot. A young quarterback facing a highly touted defense is an important variable to account for.
2. Start Early
Using the Bills-Jets example, you want to take the first three or four drives from the Jets on offense. Although those drives tend to be heavily scripted by offensive coordinators, they can be more fruitful for this endeavor since the defense is fresh and the opposing offense is adjusting to the crowd, environment and game speed.
3. Passing Attempts Are Key
Although turnovers can happen through fumbles or failed fourth-down attempts, interceptions are usually how turnover props hit. For example, the Titans led the NFL in 2021 in rush attempts per game, which makes it harder for a defense to generate turnovers via the pass. On the flip side, the Jets had the fewest rush attempts per game at 22.4. It’s hard for a defense to get interceptions if the opposing offense isn’t throwing the ball as often. Then, bad teams also get down early and stop running the ball. This is why you shouldn’t panic initially if you lost on turnover bets for the opening two drives.
4. Don’t Be Scared or Ashamed to Pull Out
If you haven’t hit at least one turnover after four attempts, it's time to pull the chute. With the odds typically at +400, if you don’t hit at least one in the opening four drives, you can no longer make enough profit to make this venture worth it. There’s no shame in admitting it didn’t work for that specific game and move on.
The Story: 2019 Week 3 — Chicago vs. Washington
Before we talk about how I fell into major profits from turnover props, I need to set the stage for why I even considered this market. Up to this point in my betting career, I had most of my “notoriety” on Gambling Twitter as “The Touchdown Guy.” In all fairness, not a bad moniker.
It was a dewey Monday evening in Halifax, Nova Scotia, on September 23. The fall air provided a chill that made me shut the windows and hunker down for an NFL primetime matchup that, on the surface, wasn’t exactly a hotbed for betting or fantasy football.
It was very early in the season, with teams still trying to figure themselves out. The Bears were still considered contenders at this stage, coming off a 12-4 campaign in 2018 before losing in the Wild Card round to the Eagles.
The Bears were 1-1 entering Week 3 and led by No. 2-overall pick, Mitch Trubisky. After falling 10-3 in Week 1 to the Packers, the Bears had another defensive matchup with the Broncos in Week 2 and barely prevailed with a 16-14 triumph. In those games, the Packers and Broncos only combined for one turnover against Chicago’s defense.
On the other side of the ball was Washington, sitting at 0-2 entering the contest. Washington’s quarterback situation was dire after losing Alex Smith to a catastrophic leg injury in 2018. The team was desperate for a veteran QB to right the ship. It turned to Case Keenum.
Who Is Case Keenum?
Case Keenum is a journeyman quarterback who has now played for eight NFL teams in his professional career. Despite setting numerous NCAA passing records at the University of Houston, Keenum went undrafted in 2012 and bounced around the league until he settled in with the Vikings in 2017. He had a career year, leading the Vikings to an 11-3 record. Despite this, Minnesota chose to move on and signed Kirk Cousins to a massive contract.
Keenum played one year with Denver before landing with Washington in 2019.
Turnover 1: Pick-six (+500) for 1U
Turnover on first Skins drive at +500. Takin’ a stab.
— Gilles Gallant (@GDAWG5000) September 24, 2019
Why I even made this bet was questionable, at best. Coming into the game, Keenum had yet to make a turnover. My motivation to bet was likely because I decided to sit out on betting anytime touchdown props due to both teams being questionable offensively.
During the commercial break, following the Bears' pitiful opening nine-play drive which resulted in a punt at the 50-yard line, I decided to take a stab on a Washington turnover at +500. It only took four plays for me to look like a "genius”
Here's the clip. (The NFL won't let us embed the clips.)
Turnover 2: Fumble (+400) for 2U
Following that pick-six, the Bears eventually took a 14-0 lead. After the Bears scored their second touchdown, I noticed on Washington’s previous drive that Keenum was throwing a lot over the middle and into tight coverage. Eight of the 12 plays on Washington’s third drive were pass attempts, and one was a strip-sack by Bears edge rusher Khalil Mack, which was negated by a Chicago penalty. I made note of it and bided my time until the next commercial break:
Skins turnover at +400 again. LFG!!
— Gilles Gallant (@GDAWG5000) September 24, 2019
To say this bet was “lucky” is certainly fair. To be honest, I’d rather be lucky than good. On Washington’s fourth drive, it only took one play:
Turnover 3: Interception (No Bet)
Needless to say, I was amped and hopped up on pure adrenaline. My phone is blowing up — text messages, group chats, Twitter notifications — and vibrating like it's going to explode. I’m running around my house in disbelief that I’ve “predicted” two turnovers in a span of four drives. With about five minutes left in the second quarter, I realized I’ve neglected my bladder for the last two hours and needed to take a restroom break.
I came back from the bathroom glowing, but then I saw the highlight of Keenum throwing his second interception of the game with 36 seconds left in the second quarter. Although you can label me as greedy, I felt crushed I missed it:
Uggh got up to go to washroom and didn’t bet that THIRD Redskins turnover 🤦♂️
— Gilles Gallant (@GDAWG5000) September 24, 2019
Even though no money was won on that turnover, here's that clip.
Turnover 4: Interception (+350) for 3U
After an uneventful halftime in which I have my friends (detractors) telling me these wins were just flukes and that I shouldn't bother betting the rest of the game, the negativity didn’t sit well with me. Sure, from a probability standpoint they were making the best suggestion to prevent losing bets. I get it and I understand. But, I was on a roll and nobody could tell me anything at that moment.
I had the power.
Coming out of halftime, Washington had the ball first and this was going to be my last hurrah on betting turnover props if it lost. If you’ve read this far, I anticipate you know where this is going:
One more time for shits n gigs. Redskins turnover at +350. LFG!
— Gilles Gallant (@GDAWG5000) September 24, 2019
Although Ha Ha Clinton-Dix might be one of the funniest names in history, his second interception of the game was the punchline to Keenum’s setup. Five plays into the third quarter, I cashed another one:
Turnover 5: Fumble (+300) for 3U
At this point, I’m 3-for-3 and mentally exhausted scrolling through all the Twitter notifications (first-world problems). I’d made over 23U in profit thus far and had no interest in betting the drive market for the remainder of the game.
Washington’s offense also woke up. Following the fourth turnover, it scored touchdowns on back-to-back drives to bring the score to 28-15 with 13 minutes left in the fourth quarter. My initial instinct was to do nothing, but realizing Washington may need to press via the pass on its next drive, I waited until the Bears punted with 11 minutes left to take my final bet of the night.
4 FOR 4[ Another +300!! 🤣 https://t.co/MUnSby3z9d
— Gilles Gallant (@GDAWG5000) September 24, 2019
On Washington’s second-to-last drive of the game, Keenum was leading his unit down the field for a potential score. After 10 plays, the Redskins were sitting at the Bears' 16-yard line looking at a fourth-down play to get a new set of downs. Keenum proceeded to try and play hero ball and called his own option. You can imagine what happened next.
Epilogue
When the game wrapped, it was a 31-15 win for the Bears and it was past midnight in Halifax. I was on my couch in disbelief at how much money I just made and watched my Twitter following grow by the thousands. I realized right at that moment the money ultimately meant little to me. It was actually the embrace of the gambling community that I came to love. The camaraderie of posting winning live bets for followers became a high I chased for the rest of the season. Although I had some moments here and there in 2019 — thanks to the likes of Jameis Winston, Jared Goff and Trubisky — no game since has reached the levels of ineptitude by a quarterback to profit from.
So how did I make over 30 units betting on these props? Here was the betting structure:
Washington turnover betting recap
1st TO (INT): +500 1U = +5U
2nd TO (Fumble): +400 2U = +8U
3rd TO (INT; didn't bet): OU
4th TO (INT): +350 3U = +10.5U
5th TO (Fumble): +300 3U = +9U
Total Winnings/Profit: +32.5U
In fairness, this was also a time when I didn’t fully understand proper straight unit structure. Almost all of my bets now are for 1U only, but this was a game I took winnings and increased the stake for each bet like a true degenerate. I would never recommend that strategy now.
Buzzkill alert: If you take away anything from this, look at this as a one-off. Bankroll management is essential and if you get carried away with these bets, you can be depleted quickly. Going forward, I’ll occasionally post live turnover bets for certain primetime games but, in all seriousness, I’m chasing a feeling I’ll likely never have again.
Bonne Chance!
