The Green Bay Packers got relatively good news when Jordan Love was diagnosed with an MCL sprain suffered in the team’s Week 1 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, rather than a season-ending injury.
Reports are that Love is expected to miss between 3-6 weeks with the injury, but the team hasn’t fully ruled him out for the Week 2 game against the Indianapolis Colts. However, in the likely event he doesn’t take the field, the Packers did announce that Malik Willis will get the starting nod.
The gulf between the two passers is understandably enormous. Green Bay inked Love to a massive contract extension over the offseason, while trading just a meager seventh-round pick in next year’s draft for Willis.
So, how exactly does the switch shake up Sunday's odds?
“It’s a big impact because Willis in an unproven passer and has only been with the team for a little over a week,” explained Action Network’s Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner. “It’s probably worth 6-7 points, like the market is implying, but also has a huge impact on the under. Green Bay will be much more run heavy and will probably allow Indianapolis to be even more run heavy.”
The early line for this game had the Packers as a 4.5-point favorite before Love went down. The move to Willis swung it 6.5 points the other direction as Indianapolis begins the week as a 3.5-point favorite. Meanwhile, the total was set at 47 prior to Love’s injury and now sits between 40.5-41.
Willis entered the NFL as the Tennessee Titans’ third-round pick in the 2022 Draft. He appeared in 11 games, including three starts, over two seasons in Tennessee, completing 35-of-66 passes with no touchdowns and three picks. However, for what it’s worth, he had a solid preseason in limited playing time for the Titans, completing 20-of-27 passes for 205 yards, two touchdowns and one pick for a 104.7 passer rating.
Should the Packers go with a run-heavy package, that likely means even more touches for new running back Josh Jacobs. The former Raider and NFL rushing champ carried the ball 16 times for 84 yards in his Packers debut. Meanwhile, the Colts were gashed on the ground in their loss to the Houston Texans, giving up an NFL worst 213 rushing yards.
