The 49ers' offense is littered with some of the league’s biggest stars. However, San Francisco’s record straight-up and against the spread is drastically worse without Deebo Samuel, which is concerning considering the wideout's iffy status for the NFC Championship Game against the Lions.
Chad Millman noted in a recent episode of “The Favorites” how San Francisco went 12-1 straight-up when Samuel was on the field for the full game, winning by an average of 19 PPG. Meanwhile, in games Samuel missed or wasn’t able to finish, the 49ers went 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS.
It’s anyone’s guess right now if Samuel can suit up in the NFC Championship Game after injuring his shoulder early in San Francisco’s 24-21 win over the Packers in the Divisional Round. Samuel missed time earlier this year after suffering a hairline fracture in a Week 6 loss to the Browns. He missed the following two weeks in which the 49ers were upset by the Vikings and Bengals. He returned for their next game, and San Francisco didn’t just snap its three-game losing streak, but proceeded to win six in a row.
The good news is the testing on Samuel’s shoulder revealed he did not suffer another fracture. However, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan, the team won’t know whether Samuel has a chance to play until later in the week.
“It's still hurting too much for us to really have an idea how he will heal up this week,” Shanahan told the media. “We've just got to be patient, see how he feels on Wednesday, and based on if it's improving, it will give us a better idea whether he has a chance for the game or not."
The 49ers opened as 6.5-point favorites over the Lions, but were -7 as of Monday night. Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner estimates there’s an approximate one-point difference to the spread depending on if Samuel plays or not.
