The Saints are severely banged up heading into Thursday Night Football against the Broncos.
Derek Carr (oblique) is set to miss his second-straight game under center while Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee) won’t play after suffering injuries in Sunday’s loss to the Buccaneers. Shaheed will miss multiple weeks as he’ll undergo meniscus surgery and reportedly might be out for the year. Meanwhile, Taysom Hill (ribs) is doubtful after missing the past two games.
Add it all up and it’s easy to see why this game went from a pick ‘em on Sunday to Denver being a 2.5-point favorite. This kicks off a week that’s already seen several notable line movements, including in Bengals vs. Browns and Jets vs. Steelers. Cincinnati went from being a 4.5-point favorite against the Browns to a 6.5-point favorite after Cleveland traded away Amari Cooper. Meanwhile, the Jets went from 1.5-point 'dogs to 1.5-point favorites after acquiring Davante Adams.
Still, Saints vs. Broncos kick off the week in a Thursday Night Football showdown, so it’s top of mind. With that being said, it’s worth taking a look at who’ll replace those notable New Orleans' playmakers against Denver.
The Saints will turn to Spencer Rattler at quarterback for the second-straight game. The rookie was 22-of-40 for 243 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in his debut. Meanwhile, the wide receivers New Orleans will rely on are Mason Tipton, Bub Means and Cedrick Wilson Jr. Tipton is an undrafted free agent out of Yale who has six catches for 40 yards, while Means was the team’s fifth-round pick in this year’s draft and has five catches for 45 yards and a touchdown. Wilson Jr. is a six-year vet with 104 catches for 157 yards and 11 touchdowns on his resume.
While New Orleans enters the game with an untested group of receivers, it does have experienced weapons to help in the passing game with running back Alvin Kamara and tight ends Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau. Kamara has 28 catches this year for 238 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Johnson’s caught 12 passes for 188 yards and a touchdown and Moreau nine catches for 112 yards and two touchdowns.
So, is there value in betting one team over the other considering the line movement?
Well, injuries aren’t the only thing working against New Orleans this week. The trends aren’t in their favor, either. Thursday home teams are only 40-53 ATS dating back to 2019, according to Director of Research Evan Abrams, and 36-47 in night games.
Additionally, Saints head coach Dennis Allen has been terrible in primetime night games. He’s just 2-9 SU and 2-7-2 ATS, going 1-3 SU with the Raiders and 1-6 SU with the Saints. Additionally, he’s only 1-10 SU on short rest, including 0-4 SU at home.
Meanwhile, Denver’s Bo Nix has been money in the bank in these situations early in his carer. He’s 3-0 ATS on the road, covering by an impressive 11.5 ppg. The only other quarterback to go 3-0 or better on the road this season is the Bengals’ Joe Burrow.
Nix’s profitability on the road mirrors that of his head coach. Sean Payton is 80-58-3 ATS on the road or at a neutral site, with the vast majority of those games coming as head coach of the very team he’ll face this week. However, it’s worth noting that most of those wins came between 2006-19, when he was the third-best coach in night games in that span. He’s just 3-12 ATS since.
