Is Aaron Rodgers really worth 5.5 points?
Sportsbooks and experts think so — perhaps even more.
Before Rodgers went down on Monday Night Football, the line for this Sunday’s game against the Cowboys stood at -3.5. As of 1 p.m. ET on Saturday, the line stood at in between -8.5 and -9.5, depending on where you looked.
“The 5.5 points seems like a reasonable difference given what we’ve seen from Rodgers in the past and what we have seen with Wilson,” said Caesars Vice President of trading Craig Mucklow.
Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said he thought Rodgers was worth 4.5 to 5 points.
“The defense of the Jets can make that number smaller if they play like they did the other night,” Pullen said, referencing the Jets overtime win against Buffalo. “It’s just a matter of Wilson no making mistakes and playing within himself.”
For what it's worth, our experts at the Action Network, using empirical data, think Rodgers is worth about 5.5 to 6 points to the spread, especially relative to his replacement Zach Wilson. In a game where the Jets need to throw more, that number should be closer to 6 to 6.5 points, according to Sean Koerner.
In addition, the difference in the total from Rodgers to Wilson should be worth about four points.
And the Action Network's Brandon Anderson is all over the Jets' unders on futures — specifically, their +120 clip to miss the playoffs. Anderson thinks Wilson may be worth even more than 6.5 points, depending on the matchup.
Meanwhile, the head trader at PointsBet thinks a move to Cowboys -9.5 may be a bit of an overreaction, "by a point or two."
“The Jets defensive line remains highly-rated and obviously unaffected by the Rodgers injury,” said Kevin Lawler, head of US trading for PointsBet. “It’s going to be up to the coaching staff to find a way to score enough points on offensive to keep the Jets competitive.”
But Lawler added that “the narrative that the Cowboys are strong Super Bowl contenders has only gained traction following their Week 1 blitzing of the Giants.”
Despite the insight, PointsBet has the highest market-price available for the Jets as of Saturday afternoon at +9.5.
According to the Action Network's proprietary betting data, roughly 56% of the betting public across all American sportsbooks are on the Cowboys to cover on Sunday afternoon.
