The main thing I look for are markets where I can be a contrarian in an intelligent way. There tends to be a lot of “hive mind” surrounding the NFL Draft because most of the market is relying on the mocks/big boards/analysis of a far too small group of popular mock-draft experts. A lot of people read those mocks and bet accordingly, with those mocks being priced into the betting market.
Every draft is going to be different and chaotic in it's own way, with a ton of unexpected outcomes. That makes mock drafts extremely fragile — it could take as little as one draft-day trade or unexpected pick to ruin even the sharpest mock. Mock drafts are valuable though — in the aggregate.
All 32 teams have different ways of thinking about the draft, and the best way to simulate the wide range of outcomes and find betting value is to look at the results of a large amount of mocks rather than favoring any specific one.
How To Bet on the 2025 NFL Draft
To that end, a website like NFL Mock Draft Database is a valuable tool. They compile a large number of industry mocks and provide data broken down every which way, such as how often a player goes at a certain slot, what percentage of time a team drafts a certain position, etc., allowing you to get a gauge on the potential range of outcomes for any possible betting market.
For instance, the betting market is currently split on whether the Titans will take Cam Ward or Abdul Carter, but Ward has been mocked to the Titans 41.7% of the time — more than twice as much as Carter (17.6%). Even if you don't agree with all the numbers, it's still valuable information compared to what else is out there.
I’d also recommend not confusing what a team should do with what a team will do. It's a lot easier to identify a team's needs than to identify how they plan to prioritize those needs. Some of my best draft bets have been betting on teams to address their second-biggest need with their first pick at juicy plus-money odds.
Looking into teams’ historical trends is also a helpful way to go about betting on the draft when their decision-makers have a previous track record. Some front offices tend to go with best player available, while others tend to address needs and overdraft a player relative to his consensus rank. Some favor certain positions early. Some prefer to trade down, some prefer to trade up, etc. Again, it's all about finding smart ways to be contrarian.
For example, I remember in 2020 me and my guy Matthew Freedman were all over Henry Ruggs to be the first wide receiver chosen. He was generally thought of as third in the pecking order behind Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb, but he was certainly in the running, yet the market was barely pricing him above 10% implied probability, and we knew the Raiders could end up taking the first wide receiver and have a tendency to prioritize speed above all else. Ruggs wasn't the right pick, but he was the right bet.
Especially toward the end of mock season, a consensus will emerge with the most likely outcome being overvalued and the second- and third-most likely outcomes being undervalued. Most of the best edges can be found here. The obvious corollary is don't bet juiced-up chalk. This isn't a market where the "true" odds are known with any degree of certainty, so laying juice will get you in trouble more often than not.
I also don't recommend making very specific picks too far out. We’re talking today on Monday, Feb. 24, before the combine has even taken place and top prospects have held their pro days. I don’t think you want to try to nail down who’s going to be the fourth (or even first) overall pick in the draft at this point in time. We still have free agency to go through, as well as some noteworthy trades that will either affect the order of the first round or teams’ needs. If you're making bets now, try to be sure it has some outs.
Tape vs. Stats In Evaluating Prospects
Both watching film and evaluating stats are important in the draft process. For someone like myself, both have a place. With that said, I don't think either is necessary to successfully bet the draft. In fact, I'm sure it could even be counter-productive to some because biases will start to creep in.
For me, hardcore, all-22 film-watching tends to be more relevant once a player is actually drafted to a team, because I might want to see what type of role they envision for him, etc. If I’m watching prospect tape pre-draft, though, I’m out to get a sense of guys’ game speed, decision-making, and less breaking down All-22 footage.
I typically like to watch (or re-watch) matchups between top schools so I can see as many prospects at the same time as possible, and see who stands out against top competition. I’m focused a little more on offensive skill positions when it comes to watching film because those are generally the most relevant players to season-long and in-season betting markets via props, etc.
Again, though, I don't think it's necessary to do this to successfully bet the draft. This is not the place where accurate evaluation pays off. You could have been Team C.J. Stroud over Bryce Young and Team Jayden Daniels over Caleb Williams, but if you bet on the first pick based on that, you would have lost.
Should I Mock?
I don’t publish a mock draft myself because, as I mentioned, I can already leverage the knowledge of people who devote a ton more time to it, just like I devote a ton of time to my projections for betting in-season lines and props, as well as fantasy.
Draft-wise, my time is better spent identifying edges — and processes to find edges — in specific markets than trying to predict exactly how the draft will unfold. I’m all about identifying a range of outcomes for each pick and then finding markets that I can take advantage of with those.
2025 NFL Draft: Top of the Board
Cam Ward is about a consensus -140 to go first overall (DraftKings, FanDuel), followed by Abdul Carter at +175, Travis Hunter at +550 and Shadeur Sanders at +750 (FanDuel).
I think Ward’s price is probably more likely to get shorter than longer. Ward is -275 to be the first quarterback drafted, followed by Sanders at +200 and a variety of long shots around 25-1 or longer. So, we’re talking about one of those two players if it's a quarterback. And I just don’t see the Titans passing on a quarterback here, unless they trade the pick to another team that does want a QB. If they want Carter, I think they'd trade down. That said, I don't think Ward's odds are a great value.
The player I’d say would be worth a long shot at No. 1 overall is Hunter at around +700. As an elite two-way prospect that we haven't seen in a while, he’s the kind of player who I could see a team convincing themselves its worth it to trade up to No. 1 for, or bypass a QB for.
