A full 11 weeks of sample size has further calcified a distinct trend — road underdogs have been amazing against the spread (ATS).
A simple wager — at the same unit size — for every road underdog this season would have netted you about $5,000 so far for $500 per game bettors.
That's over a roughly 100 game sample size (55-41-1), good for a 10% return on investment since September.
And this isn't a recent phenomenon, either. Pull back the scope a couple of seasons and the same trend has persisted year-in, year-out.
Since 2018, road underdogs — at any price — have gone 389-309-20 (56% win rate) and have returned 7.5% on investment. A $500 per game bettor would be up over $27,000.
Since 2019, road underdogs have gone 305-237-13 (56% win rate) and returned 8.4% on investment. A $500 per game bettor would be up about $24,000.
And since 2020, road underdogs have gone 219-179-4 (55% win rate) with a 6% ROI. A $500 per game bettor would be up $12,000.
The point is: no matter how you slice it up — or manipulate the trend's timeframe — road underdogs have won bettors a substantial amount of money over the last half decade.
For this week's Sunday and Monday matchups, here are the road underdogs. The lines at hand are the best market values for the team’s spread. The book that's housing that market-best line is listed, too.
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET: Falcons (+4, -110) vs. Commanders (FanDuel)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET: Bears (+6, -107) vs. Jets (PointsBet)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET: Texans (+14, -105) vs. Dolphins (PlayUp)
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET: Raiders (+4, -110) vs. Seahawks (WynnBet)
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET: Rams (+16, -110) vs. Chiefs (BetMGM)
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET: Saints (+9.5, -107) vs. 49ers (PointsBet)
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET: Packers (+6.5, -105) vs. Eagles (PointsBet)
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET: Steelers (+2.5, +100) vs. Colts (WynnBet)
Do keep in mind that this trend has persisted over a lengthy sample size. The best way to ensure a profit over the long run is to bet each road underdog at the same unit size for every game.
