The Indianapolis Colts (2-2) and Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) will kick off the Sunday afternoon slate of NFL Week 5. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville on CBS, and the game can be streamed on YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
The Jaguars are consensus 3.5-point favorites over the Colts (Jaguars -3) after the spread opened at Jaguars -2.5 before the season. The over/under is 45.5 after opening at 47.5. The Jaguars are -185 favorites to win outright, with the Colts are +155 to pull off the upset.
The Colts won 27-24 over the Steelers last week. Joe Flacco played well in relief of Anthony Richardson with 168 passing yards and 2 touchdowns. On the injury front, Jonathan Taylor suffered a high ankle sprain. The Jaguars lost 24-20 to the Texans. Trevor Lawrence only averaged 5.1 yards per pass attempt and finished with 169 yards, although Jacksonville ran for 158.
Let's get into my Colts vs. Jaguars prediction and my NFL picks and predictions for Week 5.
Colts vs. Jaguars Expert Picks
Spread
I'm backing the Jaguars to get their first win of the season and cover for a second straight week.
Moneyline
My bet is focused on the spread and not the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm in line with the over/under on this game.
My Pick: Jaguars -2.5 (-120)
Colts vs. Jaguars Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 / -110 | +155 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 / -110 | -185 |
- Colts vs. Jaguars Spread: Jaguars -3
- Colts vs. Jaguars Over/Under: 46.5 points
- Colts vs. Jaguars Moneyline: Jaguars -150, Colts +125
- Colts vs. Jaguars Best Bet:Jaguars -2.5 (-120)
- 62% of bets and 54% of the money are on the Colts to cover the spread.
- 78% of bets and 47% of the money are on the over.
- 61% of bets and 43% of the money on the moneyline are on the Jaguars.
My Jaguars vs. Colts best bet is on Jacksonville. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Colts vs. Jaguars NFL Week 5
I think this is the Jaguars’ win. They got their cover last week against the Texans, but I think this is the actual “W.”
The Colts play a lot of Cover 3 under defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, and Trevor Lawrence is completing 66% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt against that coverage this year. Overall, he’s completing just 53% of passes and averaging 6.0 yards per attempt. This is pretty much the only kind of defense he’s been having success against.
Lawrence has also been getting a bit unlucky. He has a 12% drop rate on his pass attempts this season, which is the most in the NFL. Also, the Jaguars have lost three one-score games by three, five and four points. The biggest memory of this Jaguars team this season is that Bills game in primetime when they were blown out, but they’ve been in every other game.
Jacksonville’s offense has been reasonably efficient. It’s 14th on early down success rate, 16th in Pass DVOA and 12th in Rush DVOA. The problem has been that the Jaguars are 30th on third down and 28th in the red zone.
That’s especially noteworthy because the sample is larger on early downs and tends to be more predictive. Things like third-down rate and performance in the red zone tend to regress toward the mean over the course of the season.
Looking at the Colts, there are some big injury issues. Most notably, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner is on injured reserve, and it looks like Jonathan Taylor is going to miss this game because of a high ankle sprain. That means Trey Sermon is poised to get most of the carries in the Colts backfield.
Anthony Richardson has a shot to play this game, but I think Joe Flacco might be a bit of an upgrade on him. Let’s not forget, though, that Flacco is a turnover machine. He threw 10 interceptions on 265 attempts last season and had two turnover-worthy plays last week.
Finally, since 2015, Jacksonville is 8-0 both straight-up and against the spread at home against the Colts.
Pick: Jaguars -2.5 (-120)
How to Watch NFL Week 5: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | EverBank Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Oct. 6 |
| Kickoff Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS / Paramount + and YouTube TV |
Jaguars vs. Colts is scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET start time, live from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL, on Sunday, Oct. 6. The game is broadcasted live by CBS and is streaming on Paramount + and YouTube TV.
NFL Weather
