The Indianapolis Colts (5-7) and New England Patriots (3-9) face off in NFL Week 13 at 1 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The game will be live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+ or YouTube TV.
The Colts are favored by 2.5 points with the game total set at 42.5 points scored. The Colts are -140 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Patriots are +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Colts vs. Patriots picks and NFL picks.
The Patriots lost 34-15 last week the Dolphins. Drake Maye threw for 222 yards, one touchdown and one interception as the Patriots offense has yet to get going. That might not be all his fault, though.
Colts vs. Patriots Prediction
Spread
I'm backing the Patriots, but only at +3.
The line has moved to 2.5 across the board as of Friday, but I'd highly suggest buying the extra half-point. The Colts are banged up, and Drake Maye has shown me enough that he's worth backing as a home 'dog.
My Pick: Patriots +3
Moneyline
I'm focused on taking the three points with New England instead of betting its moneyline.
Over/Under
I project this total at 41 points, but I don't see enough of an edge on the under from a matchup perspective to bet it.
Colts vs. Patriots Odds
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
- Colts vs. Patriots spread: Colts -2.5
- Colts vs. Patriots over/under: 42.5 points scored
- Colts vs. Patriots moneyline: Colts -135, Patriots +115
- Colts vs. Patriots prediction: Patriots +3
MyColts vs. Patriots pick is on New England. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Colts vs. Patriots Preview
Getting the three points for New England is very, very important. Buy the half-point if you need to.
Teams that faced the Lions the previous week generally struggle against the spread.
Detroit is a physical team, and you see that here with Josh Downs looking unlikely to play, Michael Pittman Jr. banged up and center Tanor Bortolini dealing with a concussion.
Without Downs and Pittman, this group of Colts receivers is underwhelming. Ashton Dulin is a special-teamer, and rookie Adonai Mitchell hasn’t done much of note.
That’s not great for a Colts offense that already wants to lean on its ground game. In addition to that, Jonathan Taylor’s efficiency hasn’t been the same this season. With a beat-up offensive line, this isn’t a great spot for Indianapolis.
We also saw Anthony Richardson revert to his inaccurate form last week. After lighting up the Jets, he was 11-for-28 passing last week against the Lions.
I know the Detroit defense has been playing well, but that performance from Richardson was demoralizing.
Richardson will face a lot of man coverage this week, and he’s 38th out of 39 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating against man and 30th in EPA per dropback. This doesn’t seem like a get-right spot for him.
As for the Patriots, Drake Maye might make a mistake or two, but he’s going to make some plays. There will be some single-high-safety looks from Indianapolis, and he’ll be able to take some shots down the sideline.
This is a beatable Colts team. Also, New England didn’t practice in pads last week to prepare for a matchup with a lightning-fast Dolphins offense.
That isn’t the case this week. When I hear that, I expect the defense to come to play, especially after such a rough outing.
My Pick: Patriots +3
Colts vs. Patriots Betting Trends
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