Sunday was déjà vu all over again for last year's Super Bowl teams.
Last week, the Eagles hosted the 49ers in the afternoon Game of the Week and got blasted before the Chiefs played on Sunday Night Football against the Packers and lost themselves.
This week, the Chiefs hosted the afternoon Game of the Week and lost to the Bills, while the Eagles got the Sunday Night Football assignment and suffered a second consecutive blowout loss, this time to the Cowboys.
Two weeks. Two sets of nearly identical results.
Two straight Sundays in which last year's Super Bowl participants lost in front of a national TV audience.
The Super Bowl was a magnificent showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. Kansas City and Philadelphia entered the season among the favorites to get back to the Super Bowl and looked the part early. But after four combined losses the last eight days, it's all starting to slip away.
Is now the time for the Eagles and Chiefs to panic?
The Chiefs fell behind Buffalo 14-0 and had nothing going until a Josh Allen interception just before the half gave Kansas City a short field touchdown to cut the deficit in half. The Chiefs hung around, fed Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice all night, and tied the game with a field goal early in the fourth quarter.
It felt like another classic was brewing, only this time there were no fireworks. Allen and the Bills drove down the field in a disjointed effort, settling for a field goal inside the two minute warning to go up three. Any other season, giving the ball back to Mahomes down three with two minutes and a pair of timeouts left would practically be a death sentence. The Bills, of all teams, know that.
Not this year.
The Chiefs got one first down, then completed a miracle touchdown when Mahomes hit Kelce down the field before he turned and ad-libbed a throwback to Kadarius Toney who streaked down the sideline for the go-ahead score.
TRAVIS KELCE LATERAL TO TONEY GETS CALLED BACK 😭
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/KIYYNAopAy— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 11, 2023
But the 49-yard score was waved off because Toney lined up in the neutral zone — how many games will this dude cost them?! — and that play zapped the life out of the Chiefs. Three incomplete passes later, Kansas City turned it over on downs, and that was that. Buffalo 20-17, and a fourth Chiefs loss in six games.
The stats painted the Chiefs and Bills basically even, and that's about how the game felt — but is that good or bad for Kansas City?
Both quarterbacks had negative EPA per play. Both teams were poor on late downs. Do you credit the Chiefs' defense for holding its own against Allen or worry about Mahomes not being able to put up points on a Bills defense that's been mediocre or bad since September?
The Chiefs finished with 17 points in the loss. They've scored 17, 19, 17, and nine points in losses over the last six games. They also have wins this season scoring just 17, 19, 21, and 23 points.
Where has Kansas City's offense gone?
The Chiefs' defense is good, even great at times, but it's not elite. This is not a unit that can win games all on its own. It's probably the best defensive unit Mahomes has ever had, but it still needs Pat to be Pat.
Kansas City is now 8-5. Plenty of teams have a 2-4 stretch, but Mahomes was 70-16 lifetime before this. That's like dropping from a 13.8-win team to a 5.7-win one.
Yikes.
Is it time for Kansas City to panic?
The Eagles are two games ahead of the Chiefs at 10-3, but Philadelphia's panic is coming faster and harder. One week after getting exposed by the 49ers, the Eagles looked lifeless against the hated division rival Cowboys.
Dallas marched right down the field, 75 yards in 10 plays, for an opening touchdown to start the game. The Eagles looked set to match before Jalen Hurts fumbled just outside the red zone.
Dallas didn't punt the entire first half — touchdown, field goal, touchdown, touchdown — and the Eagles uncharacteristically stalled twice more on drives and settled for field goals to trail 24-6 at the half.
That turned out to be it, for the most part.
The Eagles scored only one touchdown all night, a fumble return by Jalen Carter on a play that was more Dak Prescott's creation than anything special Philadelphia's defense did.
Philly's offense reached the red zone once all night. It ran two plays and lost yards on both.
The Eagles fumbled three times and lost all three, but this wasn't bad luck. This was an opportunistic Cowboys defense just ripping the ball away and wanting it more.
Hurts passed for fewer than 200 yards. He averaged -0.29 EPA per play as a passer and -0.74 EPA per play on designed runs. His potential MVP campaign likely died on the vine Sunday night. Even if the Eagles finish 14-3, it will be hard for voters to forget these two stinkers in the biggest stretch of the season.
The Eagles ran 23 times for 106 yards, nothing like the fearsome rushing attack from a year ago. A.J. Brown had nine catches for 94 yards but was outplayed by Stephon Gilmore. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert added nine catches, and that was the entire passing game. The only other Eagle to catch a single pass was Olamide Zaccheaus, and that catch came on a fake punt.
Like the Chiefs, this Eagles offense has never felt in a rhythm all season.
An offense with three pass catchers and a middling running game just isn't good enough, nor is it creative enough. Last year's Eagles dominated on early downs, always on the front foot. On Sunday night, the Eagles averaged -0.27 EPA on early downs, 7th percentile.
Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson has come woefully short of what Shane Steichen did a year ago, and the same must be said for Matt Nagy replacing Eric Bieniemy for the Chiefs. It turns out losing those offensive coordinators matters.
Combining the last two weeks, the Eagles lost 75 to 32 to the Cowboys and 49ers.
Philadelphia still has 10 wins, one of 106 teams since 2000 to have at least 10 wins through Week 14. Per Sheil Kapadia, the Eagles rank 103rd of those 106 teams in point differential at +21.
Is it time for the Eagles to panic?
The Chiefs are only a game up in the division now on the Broncos, one of those teams that beat them and shut down Kansas City's offense in October.
Even so, the Chiefs have the division tiebreaker for now, and they also finish the season against the Patriots, Raiders, Bengals and Chargers. That's potentially Bailey Zappe, Aidan O'Connell, Jake Browning and Easton Stick — all four of them backups, and all four not Mahomes or anything in the same universe.
The sky is not falling in Kansas City. The Chiefs may not lose again in the regular season, and they'll likely coast to a division title and the AFC 3-seed. They should earn a home game against a team like the Broncos or Bills — of course, they've lost to both of those teams now, too.
The Eagles are still 10-3 and control their destiny in the NFC East. Win in Seattle next Monday night and Philadelphia probably finishes the season 14-3 with only the Giants (twice) and Cardinals left on the schedule, at least the NFC 2-seed and maybe still the 1-seed if the 49ers lose a game.
That means at least one home playoff game, probably two, and it means a chance to avenge these losses to the 49ers, Cowboys, or likely both. Or, you know, just get blown out again.
When is the last time the Eagles actually looked good, like Super Bowl good?
Was it the Week 7 game against Miami? The defense was terrific, and that felt like a statement. But is that it? Week 3 in Tampa Bay on Monday night, I guess? That's two of the three Eagles wins all season by more than seven points.
Last year's Eagles repeatedly rolled up subpar opponents. This year, Philly barely squeaks by them. It turns out that does matter after all, since it tells us about the quality of the team.
When's the last time the Chiefs looked Super Bowl good?
The 14-point win over the Raiders a few weeks ago? Nope, four-point game heading into the fourth. An 11-point Thursday night win over the Broncos? Not hardly, not with 19 points. That's two of the three Chiefs wins by more than a touchdown. The other one looked great … way back in Week 3 against the Bears!
Hooray?
So is now the time for the Chiefs and Eagles to panic?
No, it's not.
It was time to panic a few weeks ago, back when the warning signs were already there.
We're past the panic stage now. Only Super Bowl contenders panic.
Right now, neither the Eagles nor the Chiefs look like Super Bowl contenders.
The only reason we think of either team as a Super Bowl contender is because of things that happened last season. Nothing we've seen this year makes them look much different than a team like the Lions or Jaguars, just hoping to win a home playoff game and see what happens from there.
Sounds harsh, but it's true. Since October 15, Kansas City and Philadelphia are a combined 8-7 with four losses to teams .500 or worse at the time of the game.
That's two months of football — and that is not a Super Bowl contender.
But, but, but, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts!!
Yes, that's the crutch we fall back on with these teams. That's last year's MVP and runner-up, after all, and our brains still tell us that if the Eagles and Chiefs are just good enough, then Hurts and Mahomes can unleash an MVP performance and do the rest.
But that's last year's data too. Here's what Mahomes and Hurts look like since Week 10:
The deserving MVP favorites, Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy, have separated themselves from the field. Eagles fans, you might remember those quarterbacks as the guys that just left tire tracks on your team the last two weeks.
As for Hurts and Mahomes? They're just … right in the middle.
From Week 10 forward, neither Hurts nor Mahomes even ranks top 10 in the NFL in EPA + CPOE. That top 10 includes Jordan Love, Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields — but not Mahomes or Hurts. Their closest comp is Jared Goff.
Still think these quarterbacks are just going to magically solve everything and win things all on their own? Sure. Right after Goff and Smith do the same.
Turns out our evaluation of Mahomes and Hurts is based on old data too. This year's versions have been good, even great at times, but rarely if ever elite. Blame the blocking, the play calling, the lack of weapons, that's all part of it. Add it all up, and it just ain't adding up in 2023.
Rest easy, Eagles and Chiefs fans — now is not the time to panic.
No, that time already passed many weeks ago.
Now is the time to accept that you're just not good enough this season. The signs have been there all along, and you know it in your heart if you're being honest.
Last year's Chiefs and Eagles are long gone. This year's teams are good, surefire postseason candidates. Just don't expect them to do anything too threatening once they get there.
Don't panic, Eagles and Chiefs fans.
Just accept the reality that's been staring you right in the face already all season long.
