Fantasy managers who have been stashing Isaiah Likely all season must be thinking, “This is it. The breakout is coming.”
Well, hold on one second.
There’s a lot going in favor of Likely having a big game on Monday Night Football. Many people’s favorite Ravens vs. Saints player prop might be the rookie’s receiving yardstotal.
Here’s what Likely has going for him: TE Mark Andrews, WR Rashod Bateman and RB J.K. Dobbins are all out tonight. Heck, backup RB Gus Edwards is doubtful, too. There is a clear opportunity for Likely to be the go-to guy.
Also, when Andrews got hurt last week against the Buccaneers, Likely shined. He had six catches on seven targets for 77 yards and a touchdown, playing 67% of offensive snaps.
Here’s what Likely does not have going for him: The Saints defense is the best in the NFL against tight ends.
New Orleans ranks No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric against tight ends, allowing a meager 27.1 receiving yards per game to the position.
Here’s what the Saints have held opposing tight ends to this season:
- Week 1, Kyle Pitts: 2 catches, 19 receiving yards
- Week 2, Cameron Brate: 1 catch, 9 receiving yards
- Week 3, Ian Thomas: 2 catches, 13 receiving yards
- Week 4, Irv Smith Jr.: 3 catches, 23 receiving yards
- Week 5, Noah Fant: 3 catches, 49 receiving yards
- Week 6, Hayden Hurst: 3 catches, 21 receiving yards
- Week 7, Zach Ertz: 2 catches, 21 receiving yards
- Week 8, Foster Moreau: 6 catches, 31 receiving yards
It’s a staggering run of results against the position that cannot be ignored.
While Likely is undoubtedly talented and in a position to succeed, Action Labs projects him for just 37.7 receiving yards, giving value to betting the under on his 43.5 total at FanDuel.
