Isiah Pacheco Props
Seventh-round rookie running back Isiah Pacheco has been a revelation for this Chiefs this season. Just having someone who can run between the tackles and pick up tough yardage has been big, as it's allowed Kansas City to put away games late and keep opposing teams honest up the middle.
Pacheco formed a dynamic duo with Jerick McKinnon. The former handles early downs while the latter operates as the pass-catching back.
This worked great down the stretch — McKinnon couldn’t stay out of the end zone — but we've been witnessing a shift in philosophy lately that could lead to a great opportunity for Pacheco against the Eagles in Super Bowl 57.
Betting Picks
If you just look at Pacheco’s receiving game logs, you probably won’t be too impressed. He didn’t register catch until Week 6 and only had two regular season games with over 20 receiving yards. He also only had more than two catches once over the regular season!
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Pacheco’s receiving props are set at 1.5 receptions and 15 receiving yards for the Super Bowl. However, he had his best receiving performance in the AFC Championship Game. Against Cincinnati, Pacheco had six catches for 59 yards. You could chalk this up to just one good game, but I think that there is something here.
This was the first game all season in which Pacheco played more receiving snaps and ran more routes than McKinnon. After not having more than 17 passing snaps all year, Pacheco had 29 and ran 26 routes.
Against an Eagles pass rush considered the best in the league, and with Mahomes still dealing with an ankle injury, I expect that Kansas City focuses their game plan on shorter passes to get the ball out quickly. This will directly benefit K.C. running backs and tight ends. For this reason, I like Pacheco’s overs on both receptions and receiving yards.
However, there is a long-shot bet that may have even more value. Remember that this is a long shot for a reason, so don’t get carried away, but it’s certainly worth a sprinkle.
Pacheco gets the overwhelming majority of Kansas City’s carries deep in opponent territory. Despite not taking over the lead back roles until midway through the season, Pacheco had 20 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line during the regular season, which was tied for 13th in the league and led the Chiefs by 13 attempts. This range is where Pacheco picked up all five of his rushing touchdowns as well.
This leads me to my favorite prop, which is Pacheco to have 50+ receiving yards and a touchdown (rushing or receiving). This is being offered at an outstanding +1200 at FanDuel.
Pacheco is +110 for anytime touchdown, so that means over 50 receiving yards is effectively being priced at +615 in this parlay. I think there is a higher chance of Pacheco getting to 50 receiving yards than the 14% implied probability that this bet prices in, leaving some good value to take a big swing.
Pick: Pacheco 50+ Receiving Yards & Touchdown (+1200) |
