While the Eagles backfield has one big dog, the Chiefs do not. Isiah Pacheco started the season as Kansas City's certified RB1, but an injury caused him to miss 2 1/2 months and he's now on the outside looking in at Kareem Hunt's workload.
How will that play out in the Super Bowl, and how should we bet on it?
Using Sean Koerner's expert projections, here's how I'd go about betting on Pacheco and Hunt in Super Bowl 59.
Super Bowl 59 Player Props for Isiah Pacheco & Kareem Hunt
If I would have told you before the season that Kareem Hunt was going to be leading the Chiefs backfield into the Super Bowl with a healthy Isiah Pacheco, you probably wouldn’t have believed me.
Hunt hasn’t necessarily been impressive. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry in 13 regular-season games, although he’s up to 4.3 in the Chiefs’ two playoff games.
In those two playoff games, Hunt has gotten 34 carries. Pacheco has gotten just five carries in each game.
Pacheco’s season was derailed when he got hurt back in Week 2 against the Bengals. He had 15 and 19 carries in each of the Chiefs’ first two games of the season but didn’t play between Sept. 15 and Nov. 29. When he came back, he got seven, 14 and 13 carries in the next three games. Since then, he hasn’t had more than nine.
Hunt joined the Chiefs in Week 4 and immediately took over the backfield work. He had 14 carries in his Week 4 debut, then he had 21 or more carries in four straight games.
Our expert projections are pretty close to being in line with Hunt’s totals. Sean Koerner has him projected for 11 carries, and the under on his rush attempts is -126 at DraftKings. He has him at 1.2 receptions, and the under on 1.5 is -193.
So, let’s look to Pacheco for a bet on the Chiefs backfield.
Pacheco’s five carries in each of the Chiefs’ last two games are season lows for him. His rush attempts total is 5.5 at -131 at DraftKings.
Koerner has Pacheco pegged for 6.8 rush attempts and 26 rushing yards. If the Chiefs get out to an early lead, they'll want to keep the ball on the ground and bleed clock if at all possible. The more time they can take off the clock puts pressure on the Eagles offense to be efficient — and quickly! — when it does have the ball.
The Chiefs aren't going to just run the ball for the sake of running the ball. Hunt is definitely a more interior runner who will go between the tackles, while Pacheco will run more toward the outside with more speed than his teammate.
With Koerner showing value on both of those Pacheco props, I’ll lean toward the over on his yards. Pacheco has been hugely inefficient of late and hasn’t averaged more than four yards per carry in a game since the start of December.
Pacheco hasn’t gone over this total in any of the Chiefs’ last three games, but I’ll trust Koerner’s data while also believing he’ll have a larger workload than the past two games next to the usually inefficient Hunt.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-109, DraftKings)
