Jaguars vs Buccaneers Odds, Prediction | NFL Week 16 Pick
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +105 |
Jaguars vs Buccaneers odds have Jacksonville installed as a 1.5-point favorite on the spread with an over/under of 43 total points. My NFL pick is on this slight road favorite.
The battle for Florida features two teams in two tight division races. The Jaguars hold first place in the AFC South, but they've dropped three straight games and desperately need a win with the Colts and Texans in hot pursuit. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have won three straight to surge to first place in the NFC South.
The critical news in this game is the status of Trevor Lawrence, who has cleared concussion protocol and will start. Let's get into the rest of my Jacksonville-Tampa Bay betting preview and make a Jaguars vs Buccaneers prediction.
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Jaguars vs Buccaneers Prediction
Jaguars vs. Buccaneers Preview
The Jaguars have dropped three straight and are on the verge of letting the AFC South slip away from them.
We are able to back them this week at the very bottom of the market for such a battle-tested team. No team in football has had to take on more teams with a winning record this season, and over the last two weeks they have had the difficult task of taking on the league’s two best defenses (according to DVOA) in the Ravens and Browns.
The same can’t be said for the Bucs, who have an 0-6 record against teams above .500 this year. Their defense is 25th in yards per play allowed on the season, allowing a league-high 4.2 explosive passing plays per game of 20 or more yards. Even in a victory at Lambeau Field last week, the Bucs allowed Jordan Love to complete 74.4% of his passes en route to converting 50% of their third downs. Over Tampa Bay's last 10 games, its defense is 31st in yards per attempt allowed (8.1), according to Sharp Football.
The key to success for the Jaguars offense is protecting Trevor Lawrence in order to exploit the Bucs' pass defense. The Jacksonville offense has a 6.1% adjusted sack rate, which takes into consideration factors such as down and distance, throwaways and intentional grounding.
Only four teams protect their passer better according to this metric, which bodes well for Jacksonville's chances to hit explosive plays against a Bucs team that blitzes at the third-highest rate in football. Despite sending extra rushers on over 40% of all drop backs, Tampa Bay still ranks outside of the top 10 in pressure at just 35%.
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This matchup for Doug Pederson and the Jags offense is one of the easier ones on their schedule.
According to FTN data, Jacksonville’s offensive schedule rank is No. 2, meaning only one team in the league has had to take on a more difficult slate of defensive units. Lawrence has faced pressure on just 27.8% of his dropbacks this season, which is good for the third-lowest mark among quarterbacks despite playing against several teams with better pass rushes than the Tampa defense.
The Buccaneers also lack the personnel on the back end to consistently make it difficult for receivers to get open. According to the Pro Football Focus coverage grade, all three of the Bucs' starting corners rank outside of the top 75 (out of 118 qualifiers) at the position.
The Bucs allow quarterbacks to throw to their first read at a league-high 72.4% of attempts. The inability to get pressure combined with poor coverage in situations extra blitzers are sent could spell disaster.
Jaguars vs. Buccaneers Prediction
Jacksonville is 6-1 against the spread on the road this season and 10-1 against the spread dating back to December of 2022.
The Jags have done their best work in this spot while the Bucs have struggled at home this season at just 2-4 against the number. Trusting Baker Mayfield as a favorite has never been a good bet. He has covered the spread at a 34% rate since entering the league when listed as favorite.
