The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) and Houston Texans (2-1) will kick off NFL Week 4's Sunday afternoon slate. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston. The game will be broadcast live on CBS and can be streamed on platforms like Paramount+ and YouTube TV.
The Texans are consensus 5.5-point favorites, with the game total set at 45.5 points. The spread opened at 3.5 but went up as high at 7. The total has come down from 47.5. Houston is a -300 favorite on the moneyline, while Jacksonville is +240 to pull off the upset.
It can't get worse for the Jags than last week, when they lost 47-10 to the Bills on Monday Night Football. Trevor Lawrence was under pressure all night and threw for just 178 yards. The Texans are coming off a blowout loss of their own, falling 34-7 to the Vikings. C.J. Stroud was under pressure all game, while Houston ran for just 38 yards.
Injury update: Both running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Tank Dell are out for Houston.
Let's get into my Jaguars vs. Texans prediction and my NFL predictions for Week 4.
Jaguars vs. Texans Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 / -110 | +205 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 / -110 | -250 |
- Jaguars vs. Texans spread: Texans -5.5
- Jaguars vs. Texans over/under: Over/Under 44.5
- Jaguars vs. Texans moneyline: Texans -250 · Jaguars +205
- Jaguars vs. Texans pick: Jaguars +5.5
My Jaguars vs. Texans best bet is on Jacksonville. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
Pinch your nose and bet the Jaguars. I'm taking the points.
Moneyline
I'm not betting the Jaguars moneyline, although I have some trends for you further down if you're interested in a long shot.
Over/Under
I'm not betting this over/under.
My Pick: Jaguars +5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans NFL Week 4 Preview
This is a great buy-low spot in a division game against the overrated Texans.
The Texans really haven’t been that great. Their offense is 26th, according to DVOA, and they rank in the bottom quarter of the league in both running and passing offense.
This is a matchup that favors the Jaguars against C.J. Stroud.
Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen plays the most man coverage in the NFL, and it’s not particularly close. While Stroud thrived last season against zone (first in QBR), he was 27th in QBR against man coverage.
Since 2003, teams that play on the road after failing to cover the previous week by 24 or more points cover at a 62% rate. There are more like that starting in Week 3. After that, teams that lost by 35 or more cover at a 69% clip, including underdogs of four or more points covering with a 49-14-2 record.
Divisional underdogs of 6.5 or more points in the first five weeks of the season at 88-58-2 (60%) against the spread since 2003.
Also, 11 of Trevor Lawrence’s 20 NFL wins have been by double digits. If you’re feeling frisky, there are some alt spreads that could be of interest. In addition to that, six of the Texans’ nine losses since the start of last season have been by double digits. You can get Jacksonville to win by 10 points at about 8-1.
Pick: Jaguars +5.5
Betting Trends
- 72% of bets and 51% of the money are on the Texans to cover the spread.
- 52% of bets and 75% of the money are on the under.
- 91% of bets and 86% of the money on the moneyline are on the Texans.
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | NRG Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Sept. 29 |
| Kickoff Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS / Paramount+ |
Jaguars vs. Texans is scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET start time, live from NRG Stadium in Houston, TX, on Sunday, Sept. 29. The game is broadcasted live by CBS and is streaming on Paramount+.
NFL Weather
