Jaguars vs Chiefs Odds
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | -500 |
For the second time this season, we look for a Jaguars vs. Chiefs pick as Andy Reid faces his former protégé Doug Pederson.
Pederson has impressively turned the Jaguars around in just his first year at the helm in Jacksonville, using many of Reid’s concepts and tendencies in the process.
But while the Jaguars have been a feel-good story, going into Arrowhead Stadium and coming out with a win is no easy task. When these teams played earlier this season, the Chiefs thoroughly dominated.
The Chiefs won by a final score of 27-17, but that doesn’t tell the complete story. Jacksonville punted on five of its first six drives and the Chiefs were up 20-0 just before half.
It could have been even worse if not for an Isiah Pacheco red zone fumble. Jacksonville was able to score a touchdown right before half and get a field goal coming out of halftime to trim its deficit, but it never felt like the game was in jeopardy for the Chiefs.
What we did see was Kansas City’s passing offense dice up Jacksonville's secondary without much resistance. When the Chiefs took to the air, especially in the first half, there was not much of a chance for the Jags to stop Patrick Mahomes.
There is a strong chance that we see a repeat performance from Mahomes and his cast of receivers in the first NFL Divisional Round playoff game of the weekend.
Jaguars vs Chiefs Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Jaguars and Chiefs match up statistically:
Jaguars vs Chiefs DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 9 | 17 | |
| Pass DVOA | 6 | 20 | |
| Rush DVOA | 20 | 15 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 1 | 26 | |
| Pass DVOA | 1 | 30 | |
| Rush DVOA | 9 | 11 | |
An issue Jacksonville had against K.C. the first time around was getting to Patrick Mahomes.
The Jags were able to muster 19 individual pressures and 10% of their pressures were unblocked, according to PFF, but they could not bring Mahomes down, as they failed to register a single sack. This led to plenty of wide-open throwing lanes for Mahomes to hit the likes of Kelce and the then-newly acquired Kadarius Toney.
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In his second game with the Chiefs, Toney saw five targets that resulted in four catches, 57 yards and a touchdown, in addition to two rushes for 33 rushing yards. Unfortunately, Toney was injured the next week and spent a month on the sidelines before returning at the end of December.
Kansas City views Toney as an explosive player who can be used to catch screen passes, take handoffs or run routes down field. His usage is reminiscent of Tyreek Hill, or Mecole Hardman more recently. Hardman will be out yet again this week, so Toney should be the primary beneficiary and see plenty of opportunities.
The Chiefs have a great advantage in the trenches. According to the PFF's OL/DL matchup chart, Kansas City has the biggest passing game advantage up front and the second largest advantage in the rushing game.
Betting Picks
In my opinion, Kadarius Toney's current lines way undervalue his likely involvement in Kansas City’s game plan.
Of course, there is risk involved with betting Toney props. You never know if his touches will come via the ground game or passing game, but I think he gets enough of both to make his overs a safe play.
If you are looking for another way to bet this game, Travis Kelce overs are also a strong option.
As we saw against the Chargers, Jacksonville struggles to cover the middle of the field. The Jaguars had a league-low 38.1 PFF coverage grade against tight ends, while Kelce was the highest-graded TE at 91.1. Patrick Mahomes has a 92.4 passing grade (best in NFL) when targeting players lined up either in-line or in the slot; Jacksonville is 31st by the same metric.
Kelce should see a lot of snaps in his usual alignment and I expect he has another productive game. He accounted for 81 yards and a touchdown on his six receptions in the first Jags-Chiefs contest.
Still, I prefer Toney as Kelce is already a well-known commodity and the lines for his props reflect that. You could play either one or roll the dice with a same game parlay and look to capitalize off a big game for the Chiefs' passing attack.
Pick: Kadarius Toney Over 31.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to 39.5 |
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