Jaguars vs Titans Prediction, Pick | NFL Week 18 Odds
My Jaguars vs Titans prediction & pick is on the spread, which has Jacksonville installed as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 41.5 total points.
This is a must-win game for the Jaguars — win and they clinch the AFC South. Lose and things get a little murky. Handicapping this game is also tricky because Trevor Lawrence (questionable; shoulder/finger) is a game-time decision. The Titans are also turning to Ryan Tannehill for their season finale as Will Levis (foot) was ruled out.
Let's break down this AFC South battle and get to my Jaguars vs Titans pick.
Jaguars vs Titans Prediction, Pick
Jaguars vs Titans Odds
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
Jaguars vs. Titans Preview
Tennessee may already be eliminated from playoff contention, but that isn’t going to stop them from trying to eliminate a division rival. Mike Vrabel already made this clear when asked about why he wants to beat Jacksonville: “Because it sucks to lose.”
The Jaguars can clinch the AFC South with a victory. It'd give them back-to-back division crowns, something they haven't accomplished since 1998-99.
With a loss, things get more complicated — they would need both the Steelers and Broncos to lose (as well as Colts vs. Texans to not end in a tie). This potential scenario makes a win against Tennessee that much more important for Jacksonville.
This season started in promising fashion for the Jags — they were 8-3 at one point and in contention for the one-seed in the AFC. Then they dropped four games in a row to start December before picking up a win last week over the Panthers.
Since Week 13, the Jaguars rank 19th in EPA per play and 18th in success rate. Over this stretch, their passing game is 21st in EPA and the rushing game is 20th. However, Jacksonville ranks last in rushing success rate over this time period.
The Jags defense has struggled as well, ranking 22nd in defensive success rate since Week 13.
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Jaguars vs. Titans Picks | FanDuel
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Ryan Tannehill has outplayed Will Levis by just a slim margin.
They're back to back in adjusted EPA per play this season with Tannehill averaging 0.001 and Levis averaging -0.010. Levis has a slight edge on Tannehill in success rate (42.5% to 42%).
It was announced on Friday that Tannehill would get the nod over Levis (foot). On the other side, Doug Pederson stated that the decision on Trevor Lawrence would go right up to game time, making this a complicated handicap.
You have to imagine that the Jaguars' decision will be dependent on the outcome of Pittsburgh’s game on Saturday.
Jaguars vs. Titans Pick & Prediction
While Tennessee has had a disappointing season, they still have a great opportunity to upset a division rival and spoil their season. In the second half of the season, the difference between these teams has been basically negligible as they rank right next to each other in most categories over that stretch.
With Trevor Lawrence banged up, I think that Tennessee could at least keep this game within a field goal regardless of who is at quarterback for Jacksonville. It seems like the market is already pricing in the “must-win” potential for the Jaguars, but teams in this situation typically underperform ATS.
This line is likely to shift leading up to game time based on whether Lawrence plays, but I like taking this line at over a field goal if you can get it. I think Tennessee is a good bet to keep it close.
