Every NFL weekend, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited whether it's through the spread, total or with player props. This also applies for the Anytime Touchdown market. Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to identify the players you should be considering to score ATDs, and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Below, I have three Jaguars vs. Bears props for the second NFL London game of 2024.
Jaguars vs. Bears Player Props
- Gabe Davis (+370)
- Sprinkle on Trevor Lawrence (+500)
- DJ Moore (+175)
Gabe Davis
Anytime Touchdown (+370)
Beating up on the Colts in Week 5, I was shocked to learn that it was only the third time Jaguars' QB Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 300 yards since the start of last season. Being able to throw on the 24th-ranked defense vs. the pass in defensive DVOA is nice and all, but now they’re moving up in competition against the Bears this week, who rank second in that category.
The Bears defense has been legit so far with only two passing TDs allowed through five games, and they rank fifth in opponent points per game (17.1). While I’m not ready to dismiss any chance of the Jaguars' passing attack finding success in this game, we do need to temper expectations. The Bears play zone coverage at a top-six rate and only have allowed one touchdown to the WR-position this season.
While rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. has seen the most success thus far vs. zone, he may end up being blanketed by All-Pro CB Jaylon Johnson. The Bears are also quite good at stopping the short pass (ranked 1st in defensive DVOA), which means it could be tough for guys like slot WR Christian Kirk, TE Evan Engram or even RB Travis Etienne to get separation.
After ruling out almost all of the Jags offense, there’s still one WR left who I’m betting, and that’s Gabe Davis. Look, I know this is a gross pick because he’s been awful with Jacksonville thus far, but his anytime touchdown price tag of +370 intrigues me. Davis has the most targets vs. Zone defenses, plays the most snaps of any Jaguars WR, and has seen at least one red zone target in all but one game this season.
Trevor Lawrence
Anytime Touchdown (+500)
The other factor to consider is, as good as the Bears have been versus the pass, they’ve been almost as equally as bad against the run. Six rushing TDs allowed (ranked bottom-five), while also ranking 30th in defensive DVOA vs. the run.
Based on last week, RB2 Tank Bigsby seems to have overtaken RB1 Travis Etienne as the lead back, and Bigsby scored twice in Week 5. The RB1 has scored in four of five games vs. the Bears this season, but if you really wanted to go after a long shot, try QB Trevor Lawrence at +500.
The QB tends to start slow with running the ball, especially in the red zone, but he’s finished each of the last two seasons with five rushing TDs.
DJ Moore
Anytime Touchdown (+175)
For the Bears, I think we need to keep this simple and go right back to WR DJ Moore.
The Jaguars' defense, under DC Gus Bradley, continues to play aggressive man coverage (top-2 rate in NFL), and Moore has historically crushed man defenses.
The Jaguars will also be missing their top cornerback in Tyson Campbell, which should allow Moore to have more freedom to roam around and get open.
