Jaguars at Bengals Betting Odds & Picks
- Odds: Jaguars -4
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Are the Bengals finally ready to pick up their first win of the season in a home date with Jacksonville? Our experts are skeptical of the Cincinnati defense, but expect a close finish.
Let's break down the betting odds and see how our staff is betting this game.
Jaguars-Bengals Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Jaguars
The most notable injury for the Jaguars is Dede Westbrook (shoulder), who missed practice on Thursday and was added to the report. Mid-week additions are never great, so his status will be worth monitoring when they come out Friday. Also, TE Josh Oliver (hamstring) practiced in full and has been working with the first team. His return would be timely after losing James O’Shaughnessy for the season and with Geoff Swaim (concussion) not practicing this week.
A.J. Green (ankle) will continue to be out. Including Green, the Bengals had eight players miss practice this week. DL Carlos Dunlap (knee) could be one of the bigger losses for the Bengals if he’s unable to suit up since he ranks third on the team in pressures and hurries. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette vs. Bengals Linebackers
Since entering the league in 2017, Fournette trails only Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley with 23.2 opportunities (carries plus targets) per game. It’s a foregone conclusion that as long as he doesn’t suffer an in-game injury, Fournette will get as much action as he can handle.
In quarterback Gardner Minshew’s five starts, Fournette has averaged 135.8 yards from scrimmage on 20.4 carries and six targets per game. He has just one touchdown on the season, but that could change this weekend.
Last year, the Bengals allowed the second-most production to opposing backfields with 170.5 yards and 1.25 touchdowns from scrimmage per game. This year, they have somehow gotten worse with 192.5 yards and 1.67 touchdowns allowed.
Almost every back with eight carries against them this year has gone off, and Fournette might actually triple that number: Over his past three games, he’s averaged 24 carries.
Linebackers Nick Vigil and Preston Brown are especially to blame for the Bengals’ generosity to opposing backs. They have both been exposed on the ground and in coverage.
- Vigil: 47.1 overall, 48.3 run defense, 50.8 coverage
- Brown: 42.2 overall, 38.3 run defense, 53.1 coverage
The Bengals are fortunate to be only No. 26 in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA. They are at their worst in the intermediate range of the field, where they rank No. 31 with 1.59 second-level yards allowed per run: Once opposing backs get 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, the Bengals linebackers have been incapable of limiting yardage.
To make matters worse, the Bengals are No. 28 against running backs with a 31.9% pass defense DVOA. Last year, they were No. 31 with a 22.0% mark.
On the ground or through the air, they can’t stop anyone.
Against such a toothless defense, Fournette could have a 200-yard, two-touchdown day. It wouldn’t even be a surprise if rookie backup Ryquell Armstead sees some snaps if the Jags dominate on the ground. — Matthew Freedman
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Jaguars -2
- Projected Total: 43.5
The Jaguars dealt Jalen Ramsey to the Rams for two first-round picks and a fourth on Tuesday. It was a move that we sort of saw coming with Ramsey sitting out due to a “back” injury. It’s a short-term blow for the Jaguars, who are looking beyond 2019 to build their team of the future.
The Bengals +4 is one of the better plays this week.
To no surprise, the 0-6 Bengals are getting very little action with 78% of the tickets and 75% of the money pouring in on the Jaguars as of writing (see live public betting data here). Are the Bengals a bad team? Absolutely. But looking at their schedule to date, they’ve played four of their six games on the road, faced a fairly tough schedule and are now 0-4 in one-score games.
Their Pythagorean expected record is 1.4-4.6. — Sean Koerner
Expert Picks
Travis Reed: Bengals +4
This is an ugly play since the Bengals are 0-6, but the line is too good in my opinion. The Bengals have played a tough schedule to date as the combined record of their opponents stands at 22-11-1 including losses to the 49ers, Seahawks, Ravens and Bills.
This team is still fighting, as four of their six losses have come by one possession, including road games against Baltimore, Seattle and Buffalo — three of the toughest places to play in the NFL.
The simulations that I run each week have the Bengals as slight favorites here. I was able to grab the Bengals +4 earlier in the week, but would easily take three points or more at home.
