Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every slate throughout the 2021 NFL season. He has a 399-299-4 (57%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
Jaguars vs. Bengals Prop Bet
Trevor Lawrence Over 16.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Trevor Lawrence is off to a rough start. His seven interceptions are tied for the most in the NFL, and his 76.1% catchable rate ranks dead-last among 35 qualified QBs
The Jaguars coaching staff seems to be encouraging Lawrence to use his rushing ability more to help the rookie break out of his funk.
Let's take a look at the progression of his rushing usage through the first three games:
- Week 1: 1 rush; -2 yards; — one kneel down for -2 yards
- Week 2: 2 rush; 21 yards — two scrambles for 21 yards
- Week 3: 6 rush; 27 yards — three scrambles for 19 yards, three designed rush attempts for 8 yards
I don't think the recent increase in scrambles and designed rush attempts is a coincidence. Given the short week and against a team like the Bengals, who tend to play more man coverage, we'll see this trend of Lawrence using his legs more continue.
After all, he is a very skilled runner:
Trevor Lawrence: Highest rushing grade among returning QBs💨pic.twitter.com/cyudn8bTS0
— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 5, 2020
It may be the key factor in getting him to play to his potential at the next level. I'm projecting his rushing yards closer to 21.5 on Thursday night and think the market is lagging on this recent trend, so I would bet it up to 18.5 yards.
If you're not in a state with legal sports betting, you can likely still play this prop at PrizePicks, which has this line at 14.5 as of writing.
PICK: Trevor Lawrence Over 16.5 Rush Yards (-110) at FanDuel
