We have a doubleheader on tap for Monday Night Football and the better of the two games comes out in Buffalo where the undefeated Bills look to continue their early-season success against the winless Jacksonville Jaguars.
A near-touchdown favorite, the Bills came from behind to take down the Cardinals before a 31-10 win on prime time against the Dolphins. The opposite story can be said about Jacksonville. The Jags blew a late lead to Miami before their comeback attempt fell unsuccessful against Cleveland.
Can the Jaguars surprise Josh Allen and the Bills in Buffalo? Or will Allen continue to flash his dominance despite an overhaul of his offensive weapons?
Jaguars vs. Bills Parlay: +800
- Jaguars +5.5 (-110)
- James Cook Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Trevor Lawrence 250+ Passing Yards (+190)
- OPTIONAL: Brian Thomas Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+240)
Parlay odds: +800 | +2000 with option at bet365
Jaguars +5.5 (-110)
This is a perfect buy-low situation for the Jaguars. They are winless with a pair of one-score losses through the first two weeks, and the luck rankings back the misfortune of Jacksonville.
Per our Action Network luck rankings, the Jaguars are 29th after two weeks and actually outperformed the Cleveland Browns from an expected points perspective — 21.8 to 18.6 — in Week 2’s loss.
This is a talented offense that has yet to take off. Trevor Lawrence has a 51% completion percentage through the first two weeks and has yet to exceed 14 completions. That should come back around against a Bills defense that is nursing multiple key injuries.
The Bills, on the other hand, rank as the sixth-luckiest team through two weeks. Before the Tua Tagovailoa injury, Miami was moving the ball well — the biggest difference was success rate.
Despite being at home, the Bills are a bit overvalued here. I expect this to be a close game and am happy to trust the luck rankings in throwing in the Jaguars spread as the base leg of our parlay.
James Cook Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Now that Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are out of Buffalo, it’s become the James Cook show alongside Josh Allen. Through the team’s opening two games, Cook has totaled just a couple of yards short of 200.
Rather than focusing on the rushing yards here, I expect a much closer game, which leads me to Cook’s receiving yards. Dating back to last season, Cook has hauled in three receptions in four of his last games. Last week, Buffalo blew the doors off Miami, which completely took the Bills out of passing down situations — and thus, just one 17-yard touchdown reception from Cook.
De’Von Achane dominated the Jaguars pass defense in Week 1 — seven receptions, 76 yards — but even Raheem Mostert (10 receiving yards) picked up some usage, too. The following week, Cleveland had 19 receiving yards to its RB corp.
Cook is the workhorse back here in Buffalo, specifically in the receiving game. He has been one of Allen’s most reliable safety valves the last couple of seasons and Monday should be no different.
Our Action Projections have Cook slated for 25 receiving yards, so there’s some value here based on the best available line (16.5, BetMGM).
Trevor Lawrence 250+ Passing Yards (+190)
This is an alt line at plus money in what is a good buy-low spot on Trevor Lawrence, similarly to the Jaguars as a whole. Lawrence has been under this number in each of the first two games of the season, but dating back to last season, he was over this in seven of his last nine.
As a whole, Lawrence had a 66% completion percentage last year. Expect positive regression to strike as the season progresses. He will not remain at 51% for long.
This is an expected trailing game script for the Jaguars. Even without Calvin Ridley, the Jaguars have brought in multiple receivers to improve the room (Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis). As a reminder, the Jaguars’ late-season woes, where Lawrence was hitting 250+ yards at an elite rate, came in a similar game script.
This play is correlated with the luck rankings and the expected bounce back out of Jacksonville. If the Jags are going to compete with the red-hot Bills, it’ll come behind Lawrence’s arm.
Parlay Odds: +800 at bet365
Optional: Brian Thomas Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+240)
After laying the three, if you still want to juice the odds up, feel free to sprinkle the same three legs with my favorite touchdown scorer in this game: Brian Thomas Jr.
The athletic freak of a rookie hauled in a touchdown pass in Week 1 and added a 66-yard reception the following week. As we’ve talked about this entire article, the same-game parlay is predicated on the Jaguars bouncing back.
If there were to do so behind Lawrence, Thomas would be a key reason why. He is the PFF’s top receiver for Jacksonville and is a big-play threat every snap. It still feels like Thomas Jr. is undervalued in the market due to the slow start from the Jaguars.
Think back to his final year of college — the big-bodied receiver hauled in 17 touchdowns and found the end zone in 10-of-13 games. Obviously, the NFL is a different beast, but the separation and physicality is there.
Parlay Odds with Bonus: +2000
