Trevor Lawrence
Over 244.5 Passing Yards (-120; BetMGM)
In last week's Wild Card Round, Lawrence was able to overcome a disastrous first half — in which he threw four interceptions — and led the Jaguars to a 31-30 comeback win over the Chargers.
The Jaguars have made it a habit to get off to slow starts all season. They rank 23rd in average first half margin (-1.7), but rank fourth in second half margin (+4.5).
Meanwhile, the Chiefs typically get off to a fast start. They rank fourth in first half margin (+4.5), and coming off the bye week, that likely means they will get off to another quick start as Andy Reid typically thrives when having extra time to prepare.
Therefore, Lawrence will likely find himself in a pass heavy, trailing game script early on again.
The Chiefs offense plays at the third fastest (situation neutral) pace, so they tend to allow added play volume (9th-most plays per game) and their pass defense ranks 20th in DVOA. Nothing about this matchup is too concerning when it comes to Lawrence’s passing yards prop.
While we could see some light snow/rain, there shouldn’t be too much wind, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about the weather.
I’m projecting Lawrence closer to 260.5 yards and I would bet this up to about 252.5.
Marvin Jones
Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-114; FanDuel)
Jones is the forgotten pass-catcher in the Jaguars' passing attack. However, I think he correlates the best with Lawrence’s over and has some sneaky upside.
Since Week 12, Jones has averaged only a 69% routes run rate, but that shot up to 90% against the Chargers. The main reason for that was due to the Jaguars getting into a trailing game script early, which forced them to use more 3-wide sets over 2-TE sets. We will likely see the Jaguars use a similar strategy against the Chiefs.
Kansas City has generated pressure at the fifth highest rate this season. The player who benefits the most on the Jaguars when Lawrence is under pressure is Jones.
His target rate goes from 12.7% when Lawrence has a clean pocket to 17.8% when Lawrence is facing pressure. His +5.1% increase in target share makes him the only full-time Jags player who sees an uptick when Lawrence is under pressure.
I’m projecting Jones' median closer to 34.5 yards and would bet this up to 29.5.
Pick: Marvin Jones Over 27.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to 29.5 |
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Same Game Parlay +470 (0.2 units)
- Trevor Lawrence Over 244.5 pass yds
- Marvin Jones Over 27.5 rec yds
- Chiefs -5.5 (1st Half)
I wanted to have a little fun so I parlayed the two player props with Chiefs -5.5 in the first half, since it’s a key part of why I like both props. There is heavy correlation between all three bets, so I like the value we are getting here at +470.
Pick: 3-Leg Same Game Parlay (+470) |
