Is there a more significant cheat code in the NFL than Andy Reid off a bye? Andy Reid has an absurd 27-4 record in his career with a week's rest.
On a typical Sunday, his offensive creativity shows through in creative plays or, during Week 18, having his players play ring-around-the-rosy in the huddle. Add in that extra week and you can almost guarantee one or two free plays for the Chiefs. Those plays should get Kansas City off to a fast start, which will be the premise of our Jaguars vs. Chiefs same-game parlay, which features Christian Kirk and Travis Kelce player props.
We saw last week the Jaguars have no problem fighting back from a deficit. Down 27-0, Trevor Lawrence turned everything around after throwing four interceptions and started dissecting the Chargers.
The electric Chiefs against the Jaguars with ice in their veins. This should be a fun one to watch.
Let’s build a same-game parlay for this enticing game.
Chiefs
1H -5.5
We have Reid off a bye combined with the league’s best offense in terms yards per drive and points per drive. Add in that the Chiefs are fourth-best team this year, and you have by all accounts a team ready to explode early.
This is not an unusual trend for the Chiefs either. They're fourth in first-half point differential on the year and their pass and run games are both better in the first half. They average 5.4 yards per carry in the first half and just 4.2 in the second half.
In terms of passing attack, the Chiefs have a quarterback rating of 108.5 in the first half and 100.2 in the second half. Starting fast has been a trend for Kansas City, and now it gets an extra week to prepare.
The Jaguars have been the opposite, notably their defense, which tends to find a rhythm in the second half. Jacksonville allows a 68.7% completion rate and 98.0 quarterback rating in the first half. In the second half, though, those numbers plummet to 59.1% and 80.8. The defensive struggles led them to be ranked 18th in first-half point differential.
The Jaguars have fought back and won impressively several times this year. You can avoid the risk of another big comeback by simply going against them in the first half.
Pick: Chiefs 1H -5.5 |
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Travis Kelce
Under 81.5 Receiving Yards
Kelce has had another incredible year, rewarding fantasy managers everywhere. However, his production tailed off a little as the season ended. He has crossed this threshold just twice in his last seven games and has just one touchdown in that time.
This Chiefs team has a more diverse set of options thanks to the development of Isiah Pacheco and Jerrick McKinnon. In recent years, it's mostly been Tyreek Hill and Kelce or bust. Instead, Kansas City can now utilize Kelce as necessary, and as big favorites I don’t think the Chiefs will have to lean heavily on him.
McKinnon came on late this year as an explosive option and Kansas City is still finding ways to work Kadarius Toney into the offense. That extra prep time will focus on getting these guys more involved in the offense.
Kelce finds a lot of his production when plays break down, when he and Mahomes create magic. That will not be the case as the Chiefs do whatever they want early to get a big lead.
Christian Kirk
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)
Two must-win games, two big games for Christian Kirk.
In Week 18 against Tennessee, he was the only player doing anything for the Jags with 99 receiving yards and a touchdown. Then, last week against the Chargers, he had more help but still produced a respectable 78 yards and another touchdown.
These big game performances are why Jacksonville signed Kirk to a four-year $72 million deal in the offseason. If we expect Kansas City to be rolling early, the Jags will need to answer somehow. The first man they should turn to should be the one making all the money.
Now the question is why a touchdown instead of over on his yardage? That’s because Kirk has surprisingly been the Jags number one red-zone target. He leads the team in red-zone targets with 22 and converted seven of those into touchdowns.
In Jacksonville's regular-season matchup against the Chiefs, Kirk had a field day, going for 105 yards and two touchdowns. The opportunity will come again and Kirk will once more answer the call in the game and grab a touchdown.
Bet This Same-Game Parlay Right Now (+1055) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
