The New York Jets look to snap a three-game losing streak and keep their playoff hopes alive on Thursday night as the Jacksonville Jaguars head to MetLife Stadium.
The Jags have found themselves just one game out of the AFC South race after a comeback win over the Dallas Cowboys last weekend. The Tennessee Titans, who sit a game up on their division rivals, have lost four straight.
The Jets (-1.5) enter as short home favorites in their first primetime game of the season. The total is 37.5, a huge drop from the opener of 42.
Here’s a same-game parlay to get you through Thursday Night Football:
Jets -1.5 (-115)
If you want a good ol’ fashioned pros versus joes side on Thursday, hop aboard the Jets.
The stock couldn’t be any lower for New York, losers in three straight. Zach Wilson is under center yet again after Mike White was not cleared to return. The Jags have slowly become a public darling, entering off a 27-10 comeback win against Dallas.
But the Jags have pulled off multiple improbable comebacks over the past month. Think back to Baltimore, too.
It’s become a routine, where Jacksonville falls behind early before clawing back in the fourth quarter. That won’t happen against a Jets defense that is sixth in pass DVOA and seventh in rush DVOA.
To make matters worse, Jacksonville LT Cam Robinson suffered a season-ending injury last week. RG Brandon Scherff and RT Jawaan Taylor are also questionable with injuries of their own. Even if they play, this is a banged up Jags offensive line, and one the Jets pass rush should have no issue beating.
Quinnen Williams logged a full practice and will return, a gigantic boost for New York. The Pro Bowler has 11 sacks in 13 games.
On the other side, while Wilson hasn’t been particularly good, this is a great matchup for him and the Jets offense. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 32nd in pass DVOA.
Thursday is supposed to have plenty of rain and double-digit winds. Even if the weather forces a trenches game — which seems inevitable — the Jets hold the slight edge here.
The injuries are too stark for Jacksonville, while the Jets should be able to get enough out of Wilson to snap their three-game losing streak.
This game will likely be won in the trenches, and the injuries piling up for the Jags are proving to be too much. Yes, New York has fallen just short against Detroit and Minnesota, but it has the edge looking for a bounce-back win on Thursday night.
Zonovan Knight
Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Following the narrative of a Jets win in a sloppy game with heavy rain and high winds, the second leg of the parlay is "Bam" Knight’s rushing yards prop.
Knight was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and is expected to play despite a questionable injury tag. He enters off the worst game of his career — 13 carries for 23 yards — but I wouldn’t take much stock in a repeat performance.
In the three games prior, Knight rushed for no less than 69 yards. That includes a 15-rush, 90-yard game against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings rank No. 2 in rush defense, per PFF.
This week, Knight draws a Jacksonville defense that ranks league average in rush DVOA.
Knight has been splitting backfield snaps with Michael Carter, but has solidified himself as the power back in this offense. Carter is more of a receiving back and hasn’t topped six carries since sharing time with Knight.
All signs point toward Knight receiving a heavy workload on Thursday, and if the Jets come out on top, he’ll have plenty of carries late to pad his stats. Bam has received 13+ carries in every game this season and only once did New York win.
The workload will be there — it’s just a matter of efficiency for Knight. And he’s proven in the three games prior to Detroit that 60+ yards hasn’t been a struggle.
Our Action Labs projections have Knight at 60 yards. While there’s not a ton of value, I still like his chances given the narrative we’re building and the expected poor weather conditions.
Christian Kirk
Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
The final leg of this same-game parlay follows the narrative of Jacksonville being forced to pass more (because of a trailing game script) despite weather concerns.
And I’m trusting Trevor Lawrence’s most consistent receiver to get the job done.
There’s an edge on this prop, according to our experts Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon. Kirk is slated for 53.3 and 55.7 receiving yards, respectively, with both beating this current prop. Obviously, weather should lead to a heavier run game, but this is a number Kirk often clears.
In Jacksonville’s eight losses, Kirk has topped 50 receiving yards in 5-of-8 games. When he’s seen six targets or more, he's gone over 50 in 9-of-12 games, and twice he finished in the mid-40s.
Kirk has established himself as the No. 1 receiver since signing that lucrative offseason contract and hasn't disappointed. He’ll eclipse 1,000 yards for the first time in his career — most likely this week — and continues to be a safety valve for Lawrence.
Even with a difficult matchup against a Jets defense that ranks top-10 in pass DOVA, I expect enough targets to Kirk where he topples this number with ease.
The Parlay (+407)
- Jets -1.5 (-115)
- Zonovan Knight Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
- Christian Kirk Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Pick: Jags-Jets SGP |
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