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Gibbs has only cleared this in one of the eight games that David Montgomery has played this season. Considering that Gibbs' role has grown as the season has progressed, I wouldn’t expect him to stay under this anywhere close to that rate, but his upside in this market is still limited.
Gibbs typically gets more playing time in trailing game scripts when the Lions are going to be more pass-heavy, while Montgomery is going to see more work when they have a leading game script. As a result, it’s tougher for Gibbs to consistently command 10+ rush attempts.
The Lions are 4.5-point favorites at home, so this game script could resemble Weeks 11-13 for the Lions, when Gibbs averaged nine rush attempts per game.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson also likes calling for WR runs, which can eat into the rush attempts share of a player like Gibbs.
I’m projecting Gibbs for closer to 10.8 rush attempts with a 60% chance of staying under 11.5.
