Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is your new NFL MVP favorite.
That's after the Eagles took down the Chiefs on Monday Night Football 21-17 despite a relatively lackluster performance from their franchise quarterback. In fact, both QBs had modest showings — with Kansas City's offensive foibles in particular showing its myriad problems in a season filled with them.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is still the third-best favorite to win the NFL MVP Award despite yet another middling offensive performance. But media members vote on the MVP award, and winning is paramount. The Chiefs are still in solid contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But for now, that honor goes to Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. In a corresponding move, Jackson is now the No. 2 favorite for the MVP award.
The advanced metrics, though, aren't necessarily bullish on any of those three quarterbacks. Hurts is No. 5 in the NFL at expected points added + completion percentage over expected — the single most important metric to decide NFL MVP candidates. Mahomes clocks in at No. 7 while Jackson slots in at No. 10.
But while this metric is perhaps the best arbiter at deciding which quarterbacks have performed well in a given season, 50 journalists — many of them old school — vote on this award. Winning — even when it's not contingent on a quarterback — is paramount.
Still, there's some respect in the market for EPA/play + CPOE. The top four quarterbacks according to that metric comprise four of the next five best market favorites.
49ers quarterback Brock Purdy leads all quarterbacks in EPA/play + CPOE and is +1500 at FanDuel. Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the second best quarterback in the league, according to that metric, and is slotted in at +1800. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is No. 3 at EPA/play + CPOE and is the fifth-best favorite at +1500. And Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is fourth at EPA/play + CPOE and is fourth in the MVP market at +500.
