Ja'Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox have the most popular NFL player prop bets for Sunday's pivotal divisional round matchup: Bengals vs. Bills.
Emotions will run high at Orchard Park for the rematch of an unfinished game earlier this month in which Bills safety Damar Hamlin collapsed and had to be resuscitated on the field.
Hamlin has since been released from the hospital and is expected to be in attendance on Sunday afternoon.
Our premier data analytics expert, Sean Koerner, assessed whether Chase, Diggs and Knox's most popular picks are valuable. These prop bets target the anytime touchdown marketplace.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Bengals vs. Bills Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- Ja'Marr Chase to score a TD anytime (+140)
- Stefon Diggs to score a TD anytime (+105)
- Dawson Knox to score a TD anytime (+210)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Thursday morning.
Chase's anytime TD is the most valuable prop among the bunch, according to Koerner.
His fair value line should be closer to +110. At the market-best price of +140 at PointsBet, you're receiving a 6% betting edge.
Effectively, you'll be receiving a 6% discount relative to its market price. Another way to think about it is you're accumulating 6% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're guaranteed to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
The other two picks don't have fair market prices, despite the fact that Knox has scored in his last five games. Knox's fair value price is +240. Meanwhile, the best market price is at +215 at Caesars.
Diggs' fair value price is +140 — the best odds are also at Caesars at +111.
