Jaylen Warren Player Props: Expert Pick for Browns vs Steelers

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Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards

The Pittsburg Steelers are pretty much eliminated from the playoffs but enter Week 18 hoping to finish the season above .500 for the sixteenth straight time in head coach Mike Tomlin’s tenure with the team.

Jaylen Warren is averaging 22.9 rush yards per game, but his stock is rising.

Over the last three weeks, the Steelers have found success establishing the run as they’ve run 55.4% of their plays on the ground, the third-most according to Team Rankings.

The undrafted rookie has emerged in what appears to be a one-two-punch backfield behind workhorse Najee Harris. He is coming off one of his best games last week, running for 76 yards vs. a menacing eighth-ranked DVOA Ravens run defense, and is averaging 9.7 rush attempts on 45.7 yards per game over the last three weeks.

The Cleveland Browns are one of the best matchups to attack on the ground this season and will also be missing defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. The Browns have the 29th-ranked DVOA vs. the run, per Football Outsiders, and opposing backs are running an average of 5.09 yards per carry (fourth-most) and 117.3 yards per game (fifth-most) this season.

Both backs for the Steelers should be in great spots, but it is worth noting that Warren edges Najee (3.18 to 2.79) in yards after contact per attempt, according to Pro Football Focus. The burst is excellent to see in the opportunities he receives.

As 2.5-point favorites at home, the Steelers should look to feed Najee Harris for touches in a favorable matchup on the ground. Jaylen Warren still exists and should benefit in chances. I expect a bare minimum of six-to-eight carries, which would continue the recent trend, and for 30+ yards to be the result.

Pick: Jaylen Warren Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

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