Mike Williams signed with the Jets on Tuesday, a week after being released by the Chargers.
New York has had a terrific offseason, though not many seem to have noticed.
Williams signed for up to $15 million on a one-year deal. Garrett Wilson is the future at receiver, but New York's wide receiver depth chart was desolate after Wilson. Williams is a great complement to Wilson and gives New York one of the best two-man WR tandems in the league.
Add in Breece Hall, one of the brightest young running backs in the league, a year removed from his torn ACL, and you have an outstanding trio of weapons — among the best in the entire NFL.
Those weapons didn't do much last season, but that was because the Jets lacked blocking and a capable quarterback.
The Jets overhauled their offensive line this spring. They brought in John Simpson and Morgan Moses from Baltimore, and they added Tyron Smith from Dallas, the best offensive lineman on the market. If they get a healthy season from Alijah Vera-Tucker, this line goes from a huge negative to a plus.
The line will also get help from a real quarterback — and don't forget about the healthy return of Aaron Rodgers, and the fact that he apparently won't be running for vice president after all.
Add it all up, and suddenly an offense that was worst in the league with a bullet looks pretty dangerous next fall.
The offensive line needs to gel and is still the weakest spot on the team but should be vastly improved. Plus, Rodgers gets the ball out quickly and makes his line look good. Rodgers was nearly ready to play already in December; it's reasonable to expect at least a fringe top-10 QB in the fall.
Hall, Wilson and now Williams are great weapons for him.
This was the No. 32 offense to end the season. If healthy, the Jets have a chance to be top-10 this fall. Where's the weakness? If Rodgers still has anything close to an MVP level in there, they could be top-five.
Williams is a big-time touchdown threat, and he's a big downfield target. Rodgers has had success with players like Williams in the past, and he'll have outstanding timing and chemistry with Wilson. In addition, Hall is explosive and a terrific receiver. And again, the line can be at least neutral and possibly good.
And then there's the defense.
The Jets defense has been one of the best in the league the last two seasons, and it's actually pretty remarkable how well New York played on defense last season considering how awful the offense was. It's not easy to keep defending short fields and to be stuck on the field all game.
The defense was great anyway, and life only gets easier with a real offense.
Of course, there's one huge red flag here: injuries.
Williams played only three games last season, and he missed four the season before that. He's constantly dealing with a nagging injury and has played only one healthy season in his career.
Smith is a stud left tackle — when he plays. He's played 30 regular-season games in the last four years and hasn't played more than 13 games since 2015. Vera-Tucker played 12-of-34 games the last two seasons.
New York's gonna want those guys out there.
And then there's Rodgers, who's coming off an Achilles injury and is 40 years old going on 41 when the season kicks off. We have no idea what Rodgers will look like.
There's no question that the Jets offense will have a huge amount of variance. Rodgers, Williams, Smith and Vera-Tucker are huge question marks, and it would honestly be pretty surprising if that quartet didn't miss at least 10 or 15 games combined.
There's a chance that group never really all gets healthy at once, that this Jets offense never really comes together.
But bettors aren't betting on median outcome, and the Jets front office isn't either.
It doesn't really matter that the most likely outcome for the Jets' season is another great defensive effort wasted on an unreliable offense that never gets healthy and finishes around the middle of the league. That's the median outcome, no doubt, and there are certainly worse versions where the defense regresses or the offense is downright bad again.
But the Williams addition, like the improved line and the return of Rodgers, pushes New York's ceiling higher and higher. That's the part that matters.
The Jets were the best defense in football in the last two years. What happens if you give the best defense a top-10 offense too? Would that team be any good?
Of course it would, and if New York just happens to get Rodgers, Williams, Smith and Vera-Tucker healthy for the right six weeks to end the season, you can reasonably argue that the Jets have about as good a roster on paper as anyone in football.
Bettors bet on ceiling, not median outcomes. For longer shots, you're betting on variance. Most outcomes are a miss, but what about the ceiling outcome, when everything goes right?
How good could Aaron Rodgers be behind a good offensive line with a great young running back and two star receivers catching passes? And has he ever played with a defense anywhere near this good?
The Jets are consensus +3000 to win the Super Bowl, around 12th- to 14th-best in the NFL. That number is way too long.
The Falcons and Chargers are also consensus +3000 to win it all.
You're telling me the Jets should have the same odds as also-off-Achilles Kirk Cousins with an unproven coaching staff and no real defense? You think Williams' new team should have the same odds as his old one that just got rid of him, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, and has no defense or blocking to speak of? Give me a break.
Will the Jets stay healthy and win the Super Bowl? No, probably not.
But with Williams on board along with the other new names and returning healthy players, New York's ceiling is as high as almost any team's in the NFL.
And it's time to grab that +3000 Super Bowl ticket and hope we get that high-ceiling outcome.
