Colts vs. Jets Picks For TNF
| Pick |
|---|
| Lean Colts -10 |
| Under 45.5 |
Lean Colts -10
Brandon Anderson: The Jets pulled off the biggest upset of the season with their 34-31 win over the Bengals. Mike White made his debut with the game of his life, completing his 10 first passes and 82% of his passes on the day, throwing for 405 yards and three touchdowns.
A charmed life for a man who is apparently the most efficient quarterback in football now:
oh ok, sure, neat, do your thing Mike White. pic.twitter.com/uAKgFpAu7V
— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) November 2, 2021
Except maybe he's not.
White completed 13.6% of his passes over expectation, per RBSDM, and his Expected Points Added (EPA) were basically MVP-level production despite an absurdly low 3.5 average air yards. Basically, the Bengals crapped the bed, White completed a lot of short passes and Cincinnati wasn't ready for the changed offense from Zach Wilson. But Indianapolis will be.
The Colts defense has played very well and now gets a full game of film on White and a week to prepare, which could swing things for the grown-man rookie. Indianapolis is a pretty good team that's finally healthy now, unlike New York, and the Colts should dominate this game on the ground and on defense.
Thursday night double-digit favorites are 46-27 against the spread (ATS) per our Action Labs data, covering 63% of the time. This line was a full -14 this past Sunday morning before the Jets upset. We really think Mike White is worth more than a field goal? I don't buy it.
Teams that eke out a one-score win as double-digit underdogs are just 15-27-1 ATS the following game when they're double-digit dogs again. Time for a Colts reality check.
This should be a get-White game for Indy, but this is only a half-unit play for me.
Under 45.5
Sean Koerner: This matchup, which I break down in further detail here, sets up perfectly for the under.
The Colts defense is designed to slow down a "checkdown" passer like Mike White. And at the same time, they should be able to lean on their running game with their healthy offensive line, elite RB in Taylor and limit the chances of Carson Wentz making costly mistakes.
I'm projecting this total closer to 44.5 and would bet the under down to 45.5 points.
