Jets at Bengals Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Jets -3
- Over/Under: 41.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Friday afternoon.
The Cincinnati Bengals are still the only winless team in the NFL and their chances to get a get a victory are dwindling. As of Friday, the betting public is backing the Jets with more than 75% of spread bets picking Gang Green to cover.
Can Andy Dalton prove bettors wrong and lead the Bengals to a long-awaited first win?
Our experts analyze all the angles of this matchup, including a comparison of the current odds to Sean Koerner’s projections and a pick.
Jets-Bengals Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Bengals
This is the Bengals' shortest injury report of the season. A.J. Green (ankle), offensive lineman Alex Redmond (knee) and linebacker Nick Vigil (ankle) all haven't practiced this week, suggesting they won’t be playing.
As usual, the Jets have a lengthy injury report, and their trend of limited players all suiting up on Sundays hasn’t been broken yet. If that’s the case, the players who are most likely to miss this game are linebacker C.J. Mosley (groin) and offensive lineman Chuma Edoga (knee). — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Friday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Jets Pass Offense vs. Bengals Pass Defense
The Bengals are 0-11. They're exploitable all across the roster, but they're particularly bad against the pass, ranking 31st in pass defense (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric).
And in the first half of games — before opposing teams start to let up on them — the Bengals are No. 32 in pass success rate allowed (per Sharp Football Stats).
Pretty much any competent passing attack should be able to exploit the Bengals. And amazingly, the Jets are more than competent.
Second-year quarterback Sam Darnold made a meme of himself in Week 7 against the Patriots when he said he was seeing ghosts, but in the five games since then, the Jets have been one of the league’s best passing teams.
Since Week 8, Darnold has a 67.1% completion rate and a respectable 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt. For context, that number would put him in the top 10 for the season, just below Deshaun Watson at 8.3 and above Aaron Rodgers at 8.1.
Over the past five weeks, the Jets are No. 7 in pass success rate and No. 2 in the first half of games.
The Jets have a balanced wide receiver unit with speedster Robby Anderson, slot man Jamison Crowder and possession receiver Demaryius Thomas. The Bengals are without No. 1 cornerback Dre Kirtkpatrick (knee, IR).
The Jets have a competent veteran and red-zone contributor in tight end Ryan Griffin and an elite pass-catching back in Le’Veon Bell. The Bengals are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA both tight ends and running backs.
Darnold has had his best game of the year in each of the past two weeks. After his matchup with the Bengals, he might have the hat trick. Darnold has 300-yard, three-touchdown upside. — Matthew Freedman
PRO System Match
The Bengals have struggled on offense recently. Over their past three games, they’ve been held to 13 or fewer points.
As a result, more than 75% of spread tickets are on the Jets as small road favorites as of writing (see live public betting data here). While this may seem like a good time to fade Cincy’s inconsistent offense, history suggests otherwise.
Teams that haven’t been able to put up a lot of points recently can be undervalued as teams to regress to the mean throughout the season. This is especially true against opponents that may not know their tendencies or personnel as well as their divisional rivals.
This creates an excellent first-half betting opportunity. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 165-115-59 (59%) against the spread since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,616 following this strategy. — John Ewing
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Jets -2.5
- Projected Total: 42.5
Expert Pick
Koerner: Bengals +3
Ryan Finley has been benched for Andy Dalton this week. I’m not sure we’ve heard the exact reason for this move yet, but it’s clear that Finley is not quite ready for NFL action.
I would speculate that the Bengals are simply trying to avoid going 0-16. They could then go back to Finley after they win a game and continue to tank for the top draft pick in 2020. This matchup, along with a Week 16 date at home against the Dolphins, are likely their only chances to avoid going 0-16, so I expect them to be more motivated this week as a result.
The Jets were getting more than 80% of the action before the quarterback change. I’ve been harping on them as buy-low candidates for the past few weeks, but it appears the public has finally caught up.
It’s also worth pointing out that the Bengals have a +2.2 edge in Pythagorean differential with the Jets. As soon as Cincinnati announced Dalton would start, I fired a bet on the Bengals at +4.
It’s only dropped to +3, which is very odd considering Dalton is worth more than a half-point over Finley. I have the drop-off closer to 2.5 to 3 points, which is why I have the Bengals as +2.5 now. There’s still plenty of value getting the Bengals at such a key number of +3.
