Jets at Bills Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Bills -1.5
- Over/Under: 36.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
The Bills have locked in the AFC's No. 5 seed, meaning there's a good chance they'll rest some starters this week. Does that mean you should trust Sam Darnold and the Jets instead?
Even if Josh Allen plays a couple of series, our experts anticipate Buffalo's passing attack to aggressively target New York's weak secondary in a low-scoring game. Let's get to their full analysis and a staff pick.
Jets-Bills Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Bills
The Bills have been healthy most of the season and Week 17 is no different. Shaq Lawson (hamstring) and Ty Nsekhe (ankle) were the only notable players on the injury report. Nsekhe hasn’t played since Week 11 and since the Bills have nothing to play for, I wouldn’t expect him to be active.
Robby Anderson (calf) has been limited in back-to-back days, so we’ll see if he ends up playing. Typically, everyone on the Jets who has been limited has suited up on Sundays. Demaryius Thomas (hamstring/knee), and offensive linemen Tom Compton (calf) and Alex Lewis (ankle) are trending towards sitting since they’ve missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Bills Passing Attack vs. Jets Secondary
The Jets secondary has struggled all season, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. In their Week 1 matchup at home against Buffalo, New York allowed to Buffalo wideout John Brown to produce the overall No. 9 PPR fantasy WR performance with seven receptions, 123 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott has vowed to play his starters for a majority of the game, giving Brown and Allen plenty of time to attack the Jets pass defense.
Buffalo slot receiver Cole Beasley has been incredibly efficient in home games, averaging a robust 7.71 targets and 0.71 touchdowns per game. The Jets will likely struggle to limit the short to intermediate work of Beasley as well as the deep ball prowess of Brown.
The Jets defense has been significantly worse on the road, allowing over 28 points per game with a point differential of -11.9 points. I expect that trend to continue on the road at Buffalo, where the Jets have lost five of the last seven games.
Even with the likelihood of reduced playing time, the Buffalo aerial attack should find success against an overmatched Jets pass defense. — Mike Randle
Expert Pick
Chris Raybon: Under 37
The Bills are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC, which means key offensive pieces like Allen, running back Devin Singletary and wide receiver John Brown are unlikely to see their normal amount of snaps. The same is true on the defensive side of the ball with players such as cornerback Tre’Davious White, of course, but I don’t think that will have as big of an impact on a Jets offense that ranks dead last in schedule-adjusted efficiency according to Football Outsiders' DVOA.
According to our Bet Labs data, the Bills under is 29-19 under McDermott, registering a profitable mark in all three of his seasons as head coach.
As 37 is a key number for NFL totals, I would lean towards taking Jets +1.5 or Jets moneyline if a 37 isn’t available since this bet is predicated on the Bills offense not living up to its end of the bargain. Stuckey and I discuss this game in more detail in the Sunday Six-Pack segment of our Week 17 NFL Betting Action Network Podcast.
Raybon is 188-143-10 (56.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
