Jets vs Browns Best Bets: Thursday Night Football Spread
NFL Week 17 kicks off at Cleveland Browns Stadium, and we have Jets vs. Browns picks and best bets for Thursday Night Football.
We have a pick on the game total, plus three player props on Joe Flacco, Tyler Conklin and Cedric Wilson. Check out our NFL picks below. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jets vs Browns Spread
| Odds | |
|---|---|
| Jets | +7.5 (-120) |
| Browns | -7.5 (+100) |
| Over/Under | 34 (-110 / -110) |
| Moneylines | +275 / -350 |
By Nick Giffen
The Luck Total of -6.3 makes this a Luck Under, and I can get behind that for a few reasons.
Joe Flacco has stepped up for the Browns, as they've scored 106 points in his four starts. However, they've gone over their Expected Score in three of those games with a total Expected Score of 98 points, or about two points extra per game.
Now he faces a Jets defense that's been great against the pass. That should negatively impact the Browns offense, as according to my colleague Anthony Dabbundo, the Browns have significantly increased their early down throw rates.
The Jets, meanwhile, are coming off three straight games in which the total points scored were more than the total points via Expected Score.
In addition, there's a small chance of inclement weather that could serve as an extra aid to keep scoring down.
With most of the money coming in on the under, and with 34 and 33 being much more significant than 35, the time to play this under is now before it gets to 34.
Pick: Under 35 (-110)
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No defense limits the opposition’s top target better than the Browns.
They are No. 1 in DVOA against WR1s and have shut down countless boundary wide receivers this season. Trevor Siemian will have no choice but to look elsewhere rather than force-feed targets to Garrett Wilson.
Tyler Conklin was on the field for 75 snaps last week in the Jets' win over the Commanders and his role as a check-down option is secure. Conklin is averaging 7.2 targets per game over the last month and has made four receptions in four of his last five games. Siemian should continue to help Conklin’s cause, as no quarterback with at least 80 attempts has a lower average depth of target (6.1).
The 3.5 receptions mark for Conklin should be lined much closer to even money given his recent performance and the potential negative gamescript the Jets will face. Getting an extra 30-40 cents of value on a player prop is a winning position to take in the long term.
Play Conklin over 3.5 receptions at +135 down to +125.
Pick: Tyler Conklin Over 3.5 Receptions (+135)
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By Ricky Henne
Joe Flacco has gone from straight off the couch to legit Comeback Player of the Year candidate. Flacco’s dramatically closed the gap on Damar Hamlin to win the award and now has the second-best odds (+350), according to DraftKings.
The former Raven has thrown at least two touchdown passes in all four games since taking over as Cleveland's starting quarterback. In fact, his 10 touchdown passes are tied with Matthew Stafford and Brock Purdy for the most in the league over that stretch.
With that in mind, I’ll ride Flacco to throw over 1.5 touchdowns once again. It won’t be easy, as the Jets allow the second-fewest touchdown passes per game (1.1).
However, considering you can grab this at plus-odds between +140 and +168, I’ll happily play his multi-TD trend and bank on Flacco continuing his elite return to the NFL.
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Tillman’s had a steady role in the Browns offense and has received solid volume, but that might not be the case against the Jets.
Even if Amari Cooper (questionable; heel) doesn't play, I don't expect a ton of volume for Tillman. Since Joe Flacco became the starting QB, he has thrown the ball 40-plus times in each of his four starts. That volume is misleading, as the Browns were either in close games or trailing.
The Browns are facing a Jets defense that’s allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game (168.6). Their defense is great against the pass and just OK against the run, so teams generally attack them more on the ground.
The Browns are a 7.5-point favorite, so I expect them to attack heavily on the ground, which should eat into Tillman’s production. In fact, with Flacco under center, Tillman has gone under 23.5 receiving yards in 3-of-4 games.
I would hit this line all the way down to 20.5. If Cooper doesn’t play, it’s under 23.5 or no bet.
