| Jaguars Odds | +2.5 |
| Jets Odds | -2.5 |
| Moneyline | +118 / -138 |
| Over/Under | 36.5 |
| Time | Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime Video |
| Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here. | |
We have five Jaguars vs Jets best bets for Thursday Night Football, but two of them happen to be going against each other.
We have two player props and one more on the game to bet, as well as two betting analysts on opposing sides of the total. We’ll leave it up to you, the reader, which one to bet.
Here are our favorite Jaguars vs Jets picks for tonight to kick off Week 16.
Jaguars vs Jets Picks
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Brandon Anderson: It feels like these teams are moving in opposite directions. The Jaguars have won four of six, while the Jets have lost four of five. Trevor Lawrence is balling and looking like everything you want in a franchise quarterback, while Zach Wilson is … making Jets fans check frantically for Mike White updates.
This Jets defense is nasty and fun and should get some pressure on Lawrence especially without his left tackle, but Lawrence has been good at avoiding sacks. Jacksonville should get plenty of pressure itself, and the Jets offense ranks only 22nd in DVOA with Wilson under center.
This is a pretty even matchup, and I like the under best. Thursday night games with a total 40 or below since 2010 are 16-4 to the under (80%), staying under by 10.2 points per game. Games at 37 or below since 2019 are 12-4 to the under too (75%). Jets games are at 39 or below in eight of the last nine. Their defense will keep the Jags in check, but Wilson and the offense won't score much. Add in a short week and windy, rainy conditions and the under looks best.
I grabbed this at 38.5 on the app, but it's fallen since because of the poor weather reports, which only strengthens the angle. I still like the under, even more so since New York's Quinnen Williams is playing.
Pick: Under 36.5 |
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Ricky Henne: I’m in the minority on this one as 89% of the money is on the under, yet I keep finding myself drawn to the over. I don’t think this will be a barn-burner by any stretch of the imagination, but it won’t take much for the over to hit, either.
The Jaguars offense is red-hot, averaging 30.0 points per game over the last three weeks, which is fourth-most in the NFL. The Jets defense is no joke, ranking fifth in DVOA per Football Outsiders while giving up only 19.8 points per game, which is fourth-best in the NFL. However, Jacksonville just dropped 40 on the Cowboys, who rank third in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA.
On the flip side, Jacksonville’s defense has been every bit as horrific as its offense has been electric. The Jaguars have given up 32.0 points per game over that same three game stretch, which is the second most in the NFL. Their defense has struggled on the road all year long, giving up 26.4 points per game compared to 19.5 at home.
Meanwhile, Zach Wilson gets his second straight start with Mike White out yet again with a rib injury. The 2021 No. 2 overall pick performed admirably last week, completing 18 passes for 317 yards and a pair of touchdowns. A repeat performance should be enough to move the ball against Jacksonville’s porous defense.
This best bet comes with a major asterisk, though. I’m not betting the over until there’s more clarity on the elements. There’s heavy rain in the forecast, but that doesn’t worry me as much as the potential for gusting winds.
If the weather looks ugly, I may very well stay away, and I won't go over the 37 that most sportsbooks are offering as of Thursday at 9:30 a.m. ET. However, if the weather cooperates, I’m backing the top two picks of the 2021 NFL Draft to score just enough for the over to hit.
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Dylan Wilkerson: In Zach Wilson's return to starting for the Jets, we saw him put on a good performance, despite the game ending in a loss for New York. He tallied 317 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception in the Jets' game against the Lions, which wasn't his worst performance this season. With Wilson getting the start again over an injured Mike White, we get another chance to see what he's made of.
The Jaguars defense as a whole is mediocre, however defending the pass is where this unit especially struggles.
Jacksonville is allowing just shy of 7.5 yards per pass attempt, and the absence of 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker for this matchup will only set up Wilson for more success. The Jags have allowed over 250 pass yards per game, the fourth most in the NFL. They're also allowing the sixth-most rush yards to opposing quarterbacks, which allows Wilson to open up his personal run game as he sees fit.
Jacksonville hasn't proved that they can shut down quarterbacks. Over the last six games, the Jags have allowed an average of 309 combined passing and rushing yards to quarterbacks. These games have come against Dak Prescott, Ryan Tannehill, Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr. This list represents a wide range of talent, which tells us it doesn't take much to have success against Jacksonville.
If you aren't particularly interested in stats, Wilson just bought his entire offensive line motorized scooters for Christmas. I'm sure they're going to protect him very well and give him plenty of time to go through his progressions.
Pick: Zach Wilson Over 217.5 Passing + Rushing Yards |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Tony Sartori: The Jets defense has been stellar this season, which is the main reason for the team's 7-7 record. Entering Week 16, New York ranks third in the league in total yards allowed per game, fourth in passing yards allowed per game and fourth in points allowed per game.
This elite pass defense is led by Defensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner Sauce Gardner. So, why back someone in Jacksonville's pass game?
With elite play at cornerback, the Jaguars will likely be forced to utilize check downs or look to the flat to generate their pass offense. This is where we factor in Evan Engram, who's one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite targets anyways.
Engram has hauled in at least five receptions in each of the last three weeks, leading the team in targets during that stretch. Serving as a primary pass option for Lawrence against a defense that forces you to throw away from your top receivers, Engram should have no difficulty getting over his receptions prop for the fourth straight week.
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Billy Ward: It's becoming a challenge to compute the actual edge on this prop with some of the games lately. I've used a five-year sample in order to price this line, and in those 1,000+ games only a handful have a total this low.
With all of that said, even when expanding the sample size to games with totals in the 30s, the "no" side of this prop hits just over half of the time. When you further restrict the sample to games with a spread of three or less, "no" hits roughly 55% of the time.
Either way, the no side of this prop should be a slight favorite here. The estimates above were fairly conservative, as well, including games with a higher spread/total than we have for this Thursday Night Football matchup.
As of this writing, DraftKings and BetMGM both have a +135 line, which I'd take down to +110 — but be sure to check both books before making the bet.
