I heard there was going to be rain in East Rutherford, N.J., on Thursday night, but seeing the 100% chance of rain upon Googling the weather is another story.
So, this is going to be a wet game. How can we bet it?
Using Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s projections, which are available with an Action Labs subscription, here are two Jets vs Jaguars player props for the same player for Thursday Night Football.
I’m a fan of these props, and so are Koerner and Raybon. Koerner has Knight projected for 14.8 rush attempts and 60 rushing yards, while Raybon has him pegged for 15.6 totes and 63 yards.
Breece Hall will be New York’s lead back moving forward, and after he went down it was presumed Michael Carter would take over. Then, the Jets traded for James Robinson. Well, Robinson has been phased out of the offense, and Carter is playing second fiddle to Knight.
Knight is an undrafted rookie who didn’t play for the Jets until Week 12. Robinson was averaging exactly three yards per carry through his first three games with New York. Carter, meanwhile, is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry.
Knight exploded onto the scene with 46 carries for 230 yards (five yards per carry) in his first three games. He went over these totals in all three of those contests. In Week 15, he struggled a bit against the Lions, with just 13 carries for 23 yards.
This week, Knight faces a Jaguars defense that ranks 32nd against the pass and 14th against the run, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. You’d think the Jets would want to go with a pass-heavy offense, but there are two reasons that’s unlikely to be the case.
The first is the quarterback. Zach Wilson played well against Detroit, but his struggles this season have been well-documented. The second is the aforementioned weather. There’s a 100% chance of rain, as of 11 p.m. ET on Wednesday night, for this game. There will be no avoiding it.
So, an iffy quarterback and awful conditions to throw? You’d think the offensive game plan will be easy to understand: Run the ball. That should lead to success for Knight, which is what we’re betting on.
I bet these at 13.5 rush attempts and 57.5 rushing yards on Wednesday night, but I'd still play them at 14.5 and 59.5.
