Patriots vs Jets Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 38.5 -106o / -114u | -184 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 38.5.5 -106o / -114u | +154 |
This game has so many implications. I absolutely love it.
First off, it's the second time these teams have met in three games. I try to forget what happened but since I was at the game and watched what I thought to be the nail in the coffin on Zach Wilson's long-term status as Jets QB, it is nearly impossible.
The Jets out-gained the Patriots on a yards-per-play basis, but when your QB plays like he's in his annual hometown Thanksgiving bowl, you're not going to win. We nailed the under in that game, but lost on the Jets +3.
Secondly, it's super interesting that both teams are off of a bye. That part really hinders the Jets in my opinion, as Bill Belichick now has extra rest after already seeing and beating this team, toying with Wilson in the process. The Patriots offense will have had extra time to study the stout Jets defense, and while I am a huge fan of Robert Saleh, Belichick has the advantage to better prepare the offense with an extra week than offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur and the Jets.
Finally, the division lead is on the line in this game. If the Jets win, they'll have the tiebreaker over both the Dolphins and Bills, ultimately being in first place. I never thought the Jets would be in that position coming into Week 11. After this game, New York's schedule is fairly easy, with the Vikings, Dolphins, and Bills on the road as their hardest matchups. Granted, us Jets fans know that we could easily lose to the Bears, Jags, Lions, and Seahawks, but hey, there's a path to a 11-6 or 10-7 season if we're being optimistic.
There's also a not-so-unlikely path to a 6-11 season for the Jets, but let's go with optimism for once.
Patriots vs. Jets Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Jets and Patriots match up statistically:
Patriots vs. Jets DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 19 | 3 | |
| Pass DVOA | 18 | 2 | |
| Rush DVOA | 12 | 21 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 26 | 6 | |
| Pass DVOA | 28 | 6 | |
| Rush DVOA | 22 | 10 | |
Both of these teams thrive on defense. While the Jets have the likely Defensive Rookie of the Year in Sauce Gardner, the Patriots have the best cornerback duo in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. The Jets have made a lot of noise on the defensive side of the ball, with strong performances against the Packers and Bills.
That said, the Patriots have the better defense statistically. I would argue their pass defense is the best in the league, although Football Outsiders says it's the Eagles. Granted, the Pats have played a fairly light schedule so far this year, with their toughest game coming against the Ravens at home in a comfortable defeat.
Let's see if we can find a common thread to the Patriots performances.
Jets +3.5 | Patriots -3.5
New England has lost to the Dolphins, Packers, Ravens, and Bears. They've beaten the Steelers, Lions, Browns, Colts and, of course, the Jets. We know the Dolphins and Ravens are pretty good teams, and obviously the Steelers, Lions, Browns and Colts are bad. If we can agree that the Packers and Bears are not good teams, then what's the explanation for the loss?
It comes down to having a good quarterback. Say what you will about Aaron Rodgers' performances this season and Justin Fields' mishaps, but both guys can make plays and compete with the best. The Patriots beat up on teams with subpar quarterbacks, which has been a defining quality for Bill Belichick's defenses.
I still firmly believe Wilson is not a good quarterback, and the stats reflect that. According to multiple metrics, Wilson is at-best an average QB (49 QBR, -35 yards above replacement). Mac Jones is certainly not any better, but he has the benefit of a seasoned schemer on his side of the ball. If we look at the Jets' opponents, they've played a fairly difficult schedule but really beat up on bad teams and gotten lucky even in those scenarios.
The Browns win was highly unlikely and required an onside kick. The Dolphins had Skylar Thompson at the helm. The Broncos started Brett Rypien, and probably should have beaten the Jets. Special teams catapulted the Jets' victory against the Packers. The one victory I won't take away from is against the Bills, which saw New York execute its game plan perfectly and the defense played lights out.
That said, can the Jets use the playbook from last week's game against the Bills and exploit the weakest part of the Pats defense?
Betting Picks
If you've read me here, hopefully you've picked up on two things. One, I'm a Jets fan and write about them most weeks. I was wrong about them against the Bills, but largely speaking, I am bearish on them due to quarterback play.
The second is that I like to make my own numbers and use logic to bring home the betting angle.
First, I have this as Pats -4.2. From a logic standpoint, the Patriots were three-point 'dogs in Cleveland, where the Jets were 6.5-point 'dogs. The Pats were then three-point road favorites in MetLife against the Jets. I know the Jets beat the Bills and played their game of the season, but the underlying stats didn't change much to justify this number. It needs to be at least 3, just a matter of if it should be higher than that.
Given the Pats' performances against bad quarterbacks, especially at home, I find it hard to envision a Jets victory here. Belichick is 15-7 off a bye, beating teams by an average of nine points. The only hope is for the Jets to exploit the run defense, but with an extra week to prepare, the Pats will likely load the box and let Wilson try to beat them. That did not work out so well the first time, and I'm expecting it to happen again.
I will obviously be rooting as hard as I can for the Jets, but my betting persona knows better.
Pick: Patriots -3.5 |
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