Picture this: you’ve just finished an epic Sunday of winning most of your NFL bets, you’re feeling the high and wondering, “What’s next?”
Then you see the trash heap that’s incoming for Sunday Night Football: Jets vs. Raiders. Still, FOMO is creeping into your brain and you're considering betting Jets vs. Raiders Anytime Touchdown Scorers.
I’m here to tell you to save your money and look toward Monday Night Football instead.
Here are three reasons why Anytime TD bets for Jets vs. Raiders would be a waste of your time and money.
1) Primetime game odds have been heavily steamed.
One of the big reasons why it’s hard to find value for touchdown scorers is how the odds are laid out.
The total is 36.5 for Sunday Night Football, one of the lowest over/unders of the season. Yet, the TD scorer odds for the likes of Breece Hall (+120) and Garrett Wilson (+175) are priced as if there’s going to be multiple Jets scorers in the game.
The Jets have scored two offensive touchdowns in their last three games and Zach Wilson has five total passing TDs in eight games. If Zach Wilson actually were able to convert a passing TD to Garrett Wilson, who hasn’t caught a TD since Week 2, shouldn’t the reward be substantially higher than +175?
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2) These passing offenses are a wasteland.
Part of the allure of betting on TD scorers is feeling like you can envision how a player scores. Visualization is half the battle. But has anything from these two offenses inspired positive imagery? They both rank in the bottom five in points scored per game and bottom 10 in passing yards per game.
If neither team is effective throwing the ball, they’ll likely lean on the run, which burns clock and reduces scoring opportunities. Not to mention, both teams can get defensive pressure from the line of scrimmage and have combined to allow only 360 passing yards per game.
Not exactly an inviting recipe for scoring, especially when you consider they both rank bottom five in third-down conversion percentage.
3) There’s always another game.
I touched on this in the intro, but just because there's game on doesn’t mean you have to bet it.
Instead of sweating out a bet, spend that time identifying matchups for upcoming games and trying to spot mispriced odds. For example, Courtland Sutton has scored in 6-of-8 games this season — he's easily the best receiver on the Broncos and he has a quality matchup against the Bills. He’s still priced at +250 for an Anytime TD at Bet365.
If you use our Anytime TD Odds Comparison tool, you’ll be able identify odds discrepancies quickly and jump on a bet before it gets steamed from the public bettors.
In a MNF game where we could actually see decent offense, in a year where scoring is down across the board, shop around and pick your spots. You don’t want to overextend yourself on a Jets-Raiders TD scorer prop when Broncos-Bills is just around the corner.
