Jets at Ravens Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Ravens -16.5
- Over/Under: 45
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX, NFL Network
Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
The Baltimore Ravens are favored by more than two touchdowns for this Thursday Night Football showdown against the New York Jets. But the spread isn't what our experts have keyed in on — instead, they're playing the over/under and a key prop bet.
See how Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner are betting tonight's primetime matchup.
Chris Raybon: Under 45
Somewhat lost amid all the Lamar Jackson MVP discussion is Baltimore's defense, which is playing at just as high a level as its franchise quarterback.
Over the past eight games, the Ravens have limited opponents to 14.1 points per game, including impressive road showings against the Seahawks (16 points allowed) and the Rams (6), as well as a near shutout of Deshaun Watson and the Texans (7).
The Jets are also banged up on offense: Top pass-catching tight end Ryan Griffin and No. 2 running back Bilal Powell have already been ruled out while offensive focal point Le'Veon Bell is recovering from the flu. Sam Darnold even got his throwing hand stepped on last game.
Long story short: Don’t expect the Jets’ 29th-ranked scoring offense (17.4 points per game) to hold up its end of the bargain as far as getting the total over.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have their own issues that may hinder them from hanging a huge number on the Jets. Jackson (quad) and his top target, Mark Andrews (knee), both aren’t 100%, and left tackle Ronnie Stanley — who is ranked as the No. 4 overall tackle in the NFL in Pro Football Focus’ grades — faces an uphill battle to play after suffering a concussion last game.
The Jets also present a tougher matchup than most for the league’s run-heaviest offense, as Gregg Williams’ unit ranks first in yards per carry allowed (3.0) and second in rushing yards per game allowed (78.8).
Jets games have gone under in three straight and Ravens games have gone under in three of the last four. Those trends are set up well to continue on Thursday night.
Raybon is 180-132-10 (57.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Sean Koerner: Under 45
With Jackson injuring his quad last week, this game was off the board until it was confirmed he was expected to play on Wednesday morning.
He was injured on the third play of the second half, so we got to see him play through the injury for nearly an entire half. He appeared to be fine, at least visually, but ran only four times for 16 yards after that play (excluding kneel downs).
There's reason to believe we may not see Jackson at 100% capacity running the ball on the short week. And to make matters worse, the Jets are very strong against the run, as seen by their No. 2 rank in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, so we could see the Jets potentially limit the Ravens' main strength: Running the ball.
There isn't much value in taking a stab at the spread, but I believe the matchup will be an ideal environment for the under. The Jets will have a hard time moving the ball against a Ravens defense that's been white-hot since landing Marcus Peters in Week 7. They've held opponents to fewer than 170 passing yards and a five-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio in four of the seven games since.
If the Ravens get out to an early lead, which is likely, it'll force each offense into a game flow that'll play into the defense's strengths. This also grades out as the slowest expected pace game of Week 15.
The market opened at 44.5 and has been bet up to 45, and I like the under at that price or above. It would also make sense to bet the under during the game if/when the Ravens get out to a lead of 7-0 or more as that will be when the game really starts to favor the under.
The only scenario that could favor over would be if the Jets take an early lead of a touchdown or more, but that's unlikely as 15-point underdogs, which is why I'm taking the under.
Koerner: Vyncint Smith to Score the First TD (50-1)
Like I mentioned above, the only way this game favors the over is if the Jets go up early, but this prop is a nice hedge play that also offers value at its current price.
The Jets will be without Demaryius Thomas and Griffin, which will thrust Smith into a prominent role tonight. We could see No. 17 running a route on 70-90% of Darnold's drop backs, so don't be surprised if he leaves a mark with the Ravens defense putting most of their attention on Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder.
This 50-1 price offers way too much value as a result. I'd bet it down to 40-1 (at least). But let's quickly clarify how to appropriately stake this prop and the under.
This prop is unlikely to hit, so you shouldn't bet a full unit. But we want to stake it in a way that hedges the under.
An example of how I would stake it if your typical unit is $100 is:
- Under 45: Bet $110 to win $100
- Smith First TD: Bet $5 to win $255
You would still want most of your risk to be on the bet with the best chance of winning: The under. The Jets scoring the first TD would be bad for the under, but if it happens to be Smith, you're already on top! And there would still obviously be the chance the under hits as well.
Koerner is 147-104-2 (58.6%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
