NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons. Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Jets vs. Ravens Prop Bets & Picks
Let’s take a look at three props worth considering for the Thursday Night Football contest between the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens.
Jets WR Jamison Crowder
THE PICK: Under 4.5 Receptions (-130)
Crowder started the year with easily his best game of the season, racking up 14 catches on 17 targets. Since then, his production has been much more mediocre. He unsurprisingly struggled with Luke Falk at quarterback, but Crowder has yet to replicate his Week 1 success even with Sam Darnold back.
Robby Anderson has taken a step forward recently, so it’s not surprising that Crowder has recorded three or fewer catches in each of the past three weeks.
Crowder has a difficult matchup against the Ravens, who currently rank third in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. He plays almost exclusively out of the slot, which sets up a tough individual matchup vs. Marlon Humphrey, who has graded out as the 15th-best cover corner per Pro Football Focus. Humphrey also has a significant edge vs. Crowder in terms of 40-time.
This is one of the toughest matchups Crowder will face all season, so I don’t mind taking the under on 4.5 receptions. That said, I wouldn’t play it at much higher than -130.
Ravens RB Mark Ingram
THE PICK: Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (+125)
Ingram is the clear lead back for the Ravens, but this is still very much a committee situation. He’s garnered just 57.1% of the rushing opportunities for the Ravens’ RBs this season, and Lamar Jackson obviously figures into the rushing equation as well. Overall, Ingram has received more than 15 carries in just two games, and he’s had 15 or fewer in each of the past seven weeks.
Ingram has relied much more on efficiency than volume this season, and that could spell trouble vs. the Jets. They rank second in rush defense DVOA, and they’re allowing an average of just 78.8 rushing yards per game.
I like the idea grabbing this prop at better than even money, and I’d play it up to +100.
Jets QB Sam Darnold
THE PICK: Over 3.5 Rushing Yards (-135)
Darnold is not a major rushing threat, but he’s not a complete non-factor, either. He ran a 4.85 40 at the NFL combine, which puts him in the 51st-percentile per Player Profiler. He's had at least two rushing attempts in eight of his past nine games, and he’s logged at least three attempts in three of his past five.
The Jets are currently 16-point underdogs, so it seems reasonable to expect more drop backs than usual for Darnold in this contest. That could lead to a higher number of carries, and we don’t need much production to hit the over on such a low number.
Darnold has averaged 10 rushing yards per game over his past five contests, and he’s hit the over three of those games. With that in mind, I like this prop up to -150.
